FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow5 clips- 7′Werder Bremen, penalty goal:0–1Penalty
- 25′Werder Bremen, penalty goal:0–2Penalty
- 33′FSV Mainz 05, goal:1–2assist
- 38′Werder Bremen, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 2
- 46′Werder Bremen, substitution:off
- 59′Werder Bremen, substitution:off
- 61′Werder Bremen, goal:1–3assist
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, goal:2–3assist
- 69′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 72′Werder Bremen, substitution:off
- 75′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 75′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 81′Werder Bremen, substitution:off
- 85′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 85′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 89′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 90+1′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 90+4′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 3
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Match report
Werder Bremen survive Mainz fightback to win five-goal Bundesliga thriller
Werder Bremen won 3-2 at FSV Mainz 05 on Bundesliga matchday 7 at the MEWA Arena, holding off a late home surge in a match that produced five goals. Niclas Füllkrug struck twice from the penalty spot in the first half to put the visitors in control.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Füllkrug converted from the spot in the 7th minute to open the scoring and did so again in the 25th to make it 2-0. Mainz pulled one back in the 33rd minute when Anthony Caci finished from Sheraldo Becker's assist, and Bremen led 2-1 at the break.
Ludovit Reis restored the two-goal cushion in the 61st minute, set up by Marco Grüll. Mainz answered almost at once, with Lee Jae-Sung scoring in the 63rd minute from Caci's pass to make it 2-3, but the hosts could not find an equaliser. The result lifted Werder Bremen from eighth to sixth, while Mainz slipped from fifth to seventh.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Werder Bremen a 19% chance of winning. Both sides return to action on Tuesday in the DFB Pokal, Mainz away to VfL Bochum and Werder Bremen away to Borussia Dortmund.
Anthony Caci scored once and set up Lee Jae-Sung's goal, earning the match's highest rating of 8.44 despite finishing on the losing side. Füllkrug's two penalties were enough to put him second among the top performers, rated 8.16.
The sides were inseparable on shots on target, with eight apiece, even though Mainz had 18 attempts overall to Bremen's 17.
Werder Bremen won 3–2 away against FSV Mainz 05 (half-time 1–2).
FSV Mainz 05 met Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at MEWA Arena. Referee: Florian Badstubner. Attendance: 33,305.
Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Werder Bremen · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 7' Goal (penalty): Niclas Füllkrug — 0–1 · Watch Niclas Füllkrug's goal video (7')
- 25' Goal (penalty): Niclas Füllkrug — 0–2 · Watch Niclas Füllkrug's goal video (25')
- 33' Goal: Anthony Caci (assist: Sheraldo Becker) — 1–2 · Watch Anthony Caci's goal video (33')
- 61' Goal: Ludovit Reis (assist: Marco Grüll) — 1–3 · Watch Ludovit Reis's goal video (61')
- 63' Goal: Lee Jae-Sung (assist: Anthony Caci) — 2–3 · Watch Lee Jae-Sung's goal video (63')
Starting line-ups
FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2)
Werder Bremen (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FSV Mainz 05 58%, the draw 23%, Werder Bremen 19%. It finished FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen.
Mainz's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give FSV Mainz 05 58% mainly because they sit 80 points higher on our strength rating, 1685 to 1605, with the usual home advantage adding to it. The draw is 23%, starting from the usual 25% for a gap this size, then trimmed because both teams' own recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why FSV Mainz 05 at 58%?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1685 to 1605. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 55–25–20.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Werder Bremen at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Werder Bremen come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 12 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Out: Jens Stage, an important player, and Justin Njinmah, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Niclas Füllkrug's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (7').
- Watch Niclas Füllkrug's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (25').
- Watch Anthony Caci's goal against Werder Bremen (33').
- Watch Ludovit Reis's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (61').
- Watch Lee Jae-Sung's goal against Werder Bremen (63').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen. Explore more on the FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen team pages or the Bundesliga page.