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play_arrow2 clips- 10′Estoril, substitution:off
- 34′Estoril, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 58′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 58′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 63′Estoril, second yellow card:Foul
- 64′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 65′Estoril, substitution:off
- 77′Estoril, substitution:off
- 77′Estoril, substitution:off
- 77′Estoril, substitution:off
- 81′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 83′SC Braga, goal:1–0assist
- 85′Estoril, yellow card:Argument
- 88′Estoril, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
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SC Braga
Estoril
Match report
Late Jonas Wind strike sinks ten-man Estoril at Braga
SC Braga edged Estoril 1-0 in Primeira Liga matchday six, a contest settled only in the closing stages after a goalless opening period. The result lifted Braga, already sitting seventh, while Estoril's troubles in the relegation zone deepened further.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The game turned on the hour mark when Ferro was sent off for Estoril in the 63rd minute, leaving Vasco Matos's side to see out the remainder with ten men. Braga pressed home their advantage, and the breakthrough eventually arrived in the 83rd minute when Jonas Wind converted an assist from Jean-Baptiste Gorby to make it 1-0, a lead the hosts held to the final whistle.
Braga dominated territorially, holding 58 percent of possession and firing 20 shots to Estoril's 12, with seven finding the target compared to just one for the visitors. Estoril's afternoon was further complicated by a disciplinary breakdown, collecting two yellow cards on top of the red shown to Ferro.
Jonas Wind's 83rd-minute finish proved decisive and earned him a 7.87 rating, though it was defender Gustaf Lagerbielke who edged him out as Braga's top performer with a 7.95 mark.
Braga's seven shots on target against Estoril's solitary effort underlined the gulf in attacking threat between the two sides.
SC Braga beat Estoril 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
SC Braga met Estoril in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Monday, 14 September 2026, 19:45 UTC at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Referee: D. Silva.
Team pages: SC Braga · Estoril · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 63' Red card: Ferro
- 83' Goal: Jonas Wind (assist: Jean-Baptiste Gorby) — 1–0 · Watch Jonas Wind's goal video (83')
Starting line-ups
SC Braga (3-4-3)
Estoril (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Joel Robles
- 21 Roko Jurišić
- 15 Isma Sierra
- 4 Ferro
- 2 Ricard Sánchez
- 44 Milan Robin
- 10 Jordan Holsgrove
- 11 Nail Omerović
- 12 João Carvalho (c)
- 98 Fabrício Garcia
- 14 Yanis Begraoui
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Braga 70%, the draw 23%, Estoril 7%. It finished SC Braga 1–0 Estoril.
SC Braga's rating gap decides it — SC Braga are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of SC Braga's 70%. The draw at 23% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why SC Braga at 70%?
SC Braga sit 313 points higher on our strength rating — 1872 to 1559. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,130 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–20–7.
Why not higher?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims SC Braga's column. Across 11,152 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.6% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.4%. These teams' recent games average 1.9 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,216. The goals environment adds 2.4 points to the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Braga average 9 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 313 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Estoril have shed 73 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,756 such games vs 34.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Braga vs Estoril final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Braga 1–0 Estoril. Explore more on the SC Braga and Estoril team pages or the Primeira Liga page.