Moreirense vs Estrela — Primeira Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 19′Estrela, yellow card:Foul
- 36′Moreirense, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 50′Moreirense, goal:1–0assist
- 57′Estrela, goal:1–1
- 68′Estrela, substitution:off
- 68′Moreirense, substitution:off
- 68′Moreirense, substitution:off
- 79′Moreirense, substitution:off
- 83′Estrela, substitution:off
- 83′Estrela, substitution:off
- 90+5′Moreirense, goal:2–1assist
- Full-time2 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Moreirense
Estrela
Match report
Moreirense snatch late win over Estrela with Nile John's 90+5 goal
Moreirense beat Estrela 2-1 in the Primeira Liga on Matchday 10 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Nile John scoring in the 90+5 minute to settle a contest that had appeared to be heading for a draw. The sides were level at 0-0 at half-time, with neither able to break the other down before the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The deadlock lasted until the 50th minute, when Landerson put Moreirense ahead from Manuel Mendonça's assist. Estrela answered within seven minutes, Lovro Zvonarek equalising in the 57th minute to make it 1-1, and the match stayed finely balanced from there, with 11 shots apiece and possession of 52 per cent to 48 in the home side's favour.
The decisive moment came deep into stoppage time. Tiago Andrade supplied the assist and John finished in the 90+5 minute to make it 2-1. The result lifted Moreirense from tenth to eighth in the table, now on 14 points and four clear of Estrela, who stayed 12th on 10.
Moreirense travel to Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 7 November, while Estrela host Benfica in the same competition the following day.
Nile John, rated highest of all with 7.86, scored the 90+5 winner after Tiago Andrade's assist. Gilberto Batista (7.58) and goalscorer Landerson (7.48) also rated strongly for the hosts.
Moreirense put four of their 11 shots on target, against one from Estrela's 11 attempts.
Moreirense beat Estrela 2–1 (half-time 0–0).
Moreirense met Estrela in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 15:30 UTC at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas. Referee: João Pinheiro.
Team pages: Moreirense · Estrela · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 50' Goal: Landerson (assist: Manuel Mendonça) — 1–0
- 57' Goal: Lovro Zvonarek — 1–1
- 90+5' Goal: Nile John (assist: Tiago Andrade) — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Moreirense 50%, the draw 25%, Estrela 25%. It finished Moreirense 2–1 Estrela.
Rating edge gives Moreirense a slight lean — We give Moreirense 50% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1476 to 1415, on top of the usual home advantage, though Estrela's habit of controlling the ball pulls a little the other way. The draw sits at 25%, just under its usual 27% for a gap this size, mostly because Estrela's recent finishing streak trims it.
Why Moreirense at 50%?
Moreirense sit 61 points higher on our strength rating — 1476 to 1415. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,106 such games. Estrela scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,653 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 50%?
Estrela hold 10 more possession points (50 to 40 in recent games) across a 61-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 9,322 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,247. The cool-off factor takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Estrela have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Moreirense vs Estrela final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Moreirense and Estrela team pages or the Primeira Liga page.