HighlightsVSPORTS - Liga PortugalYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 59′Arouca, substitution:off
- 64′Arouca, own goal:1–0Own goal
- 70′Nacional, substitution:off
- 70′Nacional, substitution:off
- 71′Nacional, substitution:off
- 71′Arouca, substitution:off
- 74′Nacional, yellow card:Foul
- 75′Arouca, substitution:off
- 75′Arouca, substitution:off
- 76′Arouca, yellow card:Foul
- 78′Nacional, yellow card:Foul
- 81′Nacional, substitution:off
- 81′Nacional, substitution:off
- 90+4′Arouca, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Videos
Player Ratings
Arouca
Nacional
Match report
Esgaio strike gives Arouca 1-0 win over Nacional
Arouca beat Nacional 1-0 at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca on Matchday 10 of the Primeira Liga, a result that stretched their winning run to four games. The only goal arrived in the 64th minute after a goalless first half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Tiago Esgaio broke the deadlock, finishing from a Näis Djouahra assist to make it 1-0, and Arouca held that advantage through to the final whistle. The hosts controlled the ball, with 62% possession to Nacional's 38%, and had 12 shots to 5, five of them on target against one for the visitors.
Arouca also won eight corners to two, though the xG figures of 0.74 to 0.34 showed a contest in which clear chances were limited. The victory left Arouca fourth on 20 points, while Nacional stayed 15th on seven.
Arouca travel to Famalicao in the Primeira Liga on Friday, 6 November, and Nacional host Academico Viseu in the same competition the following day.
Näis Djouahra set up Esgaio's winning goal and earned the match's highest rating among the top performers, 7.7. Nacional's Renato Marin was rated 7.44 despite finishing on the losing side.
Arouca had 12 shots to Nacional's 5, with five on target against one.
Arouca beat Nacional 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Arouca met Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Referee: Luis Godinho.
Team pages: Arouca · Nacional · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 64' Goal (own goal): Matheus Dias — 1–0 · Watch Matheus Dias's goal video (64')
Starting line-ups
Arouca (4-2-3-1)
Nacional (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Arouca 56%, the draw 26%, Nacional 18%. It finished Arouca 1–0 Nacional.
Arouca's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give Arouca 56% mainly because they sit 152 points higher on our strength rating, 1556 to 1404, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 26%, starting from 25% for a strength gap this size and nudged up 1 point because both sides' own recent games average 2.7 goals.
Why Arouca at 56%?
Arouca sit 152 points higher on our strength rating — 1556 to 1404. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,375 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 56–26–18.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Nacional at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,368. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Arouca have averaged 5 percentage points more possession than Nacional in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nacional come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals and 11 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Arouca vs Nacional final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Arouca 1–0 Nacional. Explore more on the Arouca and Nacional team pages or the Primeira Liga page.