Karlsruher SC vs 29.08.26 11:002 – 5Full Time
VfL Wolfsburg — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Wolfsburg hit five past Karlsruher in seven-goal thriller
Karlsruher SC were beaten 5-2 by VfL Wolfsburg at the BBBank Wildpark in a 2. Bundesliga fixture that produced seven goals across a chaotic opening period and a late collapse. The result leaves Karlsruher in sixth position on four points from three matches, while Wolfsburg climb to third with seven points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The hosts made the brighter start, with Shio Fukuda converting a Marcel Franke assist after seven minutes. Wolfsburg responded almost immediately through Alexander Bernhardsson, set up by Fabian Reese, before Marvin Wanitzek restored Karlsruher's lead in the 12th minute with an assist from Louey Ben Farhat. Reese then levelled again in the 28th minute, and Vinicius Souza, assisted by Joakim Mæhle, put the away side ahead for good in stoppage time before half-time, making it 3-2 at the break.
Wolfsburg controlled much of the second half without adding to the scoreline until deep into the closing stages. Hauke Wahl, teed up by Robert-Nesta Glatzel, extended the lead in the 88th minute, and Reese completed his brace with a fifth Wolfsburg goal in the fifth minute of stoppage time, assisted by Alessio Besio, to seal a comprehensive away win.
Fabian Reese scored twice and added an assist, finishing with a match-high rating of 10.0 as Wolfsburg's most influential attacker.
Wolfsburg's dominance was reflected in their 58% share of possession and 27 shots to Karlsruher's 18.
VfL Wolfsburg won 5–2 away against Karlsruher SC (half-time 2–3).
Karlsruher SC met VfL Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 11:00 UTC at BBBank Wildpark. Referee: Lars Erbst.
Team pages: Karlsruher SC · VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Shio Fukuda (assist: Marcel Franke) — 1–0 · Watch Shio Fukuda's goal video (7')
- 10' Goal: Alexander Bernhardsson (assist: Fabian Reese) — 1–1 · Watch Alexander Bernhardsson's goal video (10')
- 12' Goal: Marvin Wanitzek (assist: Louey Ben Farhat) — 2–1 · Watch Marvin Wanitzek's goal video (12')
- 28' Goal: Fabian Reese (assist: Joakim Mæhle) — 2–2 · Watch Fabian Reese's goal video (28')
- 45' Goal: Vinicius Souza (assist: Joakim Mæhle) — 2–3 · Watch Vinicius Souza's goal video (45')
- 88' Goal: Hauke Wahl (assist: Robert Glatzel) — 2–4 · Watch Hauke Wahl's goal video (88')
- 90' Goal: Fabian Reese (assist: Alessio Besio) — 2–5 · Watch Fabian Reese's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Karlsruher SC (4-4-2)
VfL Wolfsburg (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Karlsruher SC 26%, the draw 33%, VfL Wolfsburg 41%. It finished Karlsruher SC 2–5 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfL Wolfsburg's rating edge, but the draw is in play — VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give VfL Wolfsburg the lean. The draw at 33% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why VfL Wolfsburg at 41%?
VfL Wolfsburg sit 187 points higher on our strength rating — 1532 to 1719. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,107 such games. VfL Wolfsburg sit -0.62 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,392 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Karlsruher SC's column. Across 10,761 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–25–47.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 33% and Karlsruher SC at 26%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Karlsruher SC win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.3 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,143. The goals environment adds 3.6 points to the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
VfL Wolfsburg have gained 62 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,243 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Karlsruher SC on 7 days' rest, VfL Wolfsburg on 4. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 43,531 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Shio Fukuda's goal against VfL Wolfsburg (7').
- Watch Alexander Bernhardsson's goal against Karlsruher SC (10').
- Watch Marvin Wanitzek's goal against VfL Wolfsburg (12').
- Watch Fabian Reese's goal against Karlsruher SC (28').
- Watch Vinicius Souza's goal against Karlsruher SC (45').
- Watch Hauke Wahl's goal against Karlsruher SC (88').
- Watch Fabian Reese's goal against Karlsruher SC (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Karlsruher SC 2–5 VfL Wolfsburg. Explore more on the Karlsruher SC and VfL Wolfsburg team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.