Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow2 clips- 17′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- 21′FC St. Pauli, second yellow card:Foul
- 29′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 37′Energie Cottbus, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 57′Energie Cottbus, yellow card:Foul
- 57′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 60′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 62′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 74′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 75′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 77′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Argument
- 77′Energie Cottbus, yellow card:Argument
- 79′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 79′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 80′FC St. Pauli, goal:1–1assist
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Energie Cottbus
FC St. Pauli
Match report
Ten-man St. Pauli hold Cottbus to a draw despite long spell down to ten
Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli shared the points in a 1-1 draw at Stadion der Freundschaft, a result from matchday 6 of the 2. Bundesliga that leaves both sides in the lower-middle reaches of the table. The contest turned decisively in the opening half-hour when St. Pauli were reduced to ten men.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Tomoya Ando was sent off in the 21st minute for the visitors, and Cottbus made the numerical advantage count sixteen minutes later when Justin Butler converted an assist from Moritz Hannemann to put the hosts 1-0 up at the break. Cottbus dominated possession and territory throughout the first half as St. Pauli were forced into a defensive shape.
Despite playing with ten men for almost the entire second period, St. Pauli found an equaliser in the 80th minute through Martijn Kaars, set up by Ricky-Jade Jones, to level the score at 1-1 and secure a point away from home. Cottbus pushed for a winner but could not find a second goal before the final whistle.
Martijn Kaars scored the late equaliser for St. Pauli and finished with the highest rating of the match at 8.12, despite his side playing a man short for most of the game.
Cottbus enjoyed a commanding 69% of possession, a reflection of the extra man they held for almost the entire match.
Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Energie Cottbus met FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 11:30 UTC at LEAG Energie Stadion. Referee: Michael Bacher.
Team pages: Energie Cottbus · FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 21' Red card: Tomoya Ando
- 37' Goal: Justin Butler (assist: Moritz Hannemann) — 1–0 · Watch Justin Butler's goal video (37')
- 80' Goal: Martijn Kaars (assist: Ricky-Jade Jones) — 1–1 · Watch Martijn Kaars's goal video (80')
Starting line-ups
Energie Cottbus (4-2-3-1)
FC St. Pauli (4-1-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Energie Cottbus 34%, the draw 28%, FC St. Pauli 38%. It finished Energie Cottbus 1–1 FC St. Pauli.
FC St. Pauli's rating edge outweighs Energie Cottbus' home ground — FC St. Pauli are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give FC St. Pauli the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why FC St. Pauli at 38%?
FC St. Pauli sit 68 points higher on our strength rating — 1547 to 1616. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,669 such games. FC St. Pauli sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.4% of 1,378 games, vs 29.1% for visitors finishing normally. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Energie Cottbus's column. Across 11,218 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 40–29–31.
Why only 38%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 38% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Energie Cottbus at 34%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,298. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Energie Cottbus are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. FC St. Pauli are 5 games into a new manager (M. Rapp), appointed 50 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Justin Butler's goal against FC St. Pauli (37').
- Watch Martijn Kaars's goal against Energie Cottbus (80').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Energie Cottbus 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Explore more on the Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.