Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 1′VfL Osnabrück, yellow card:Foul
- 9′VfL Osnabrück, yellow card:Foul
- 10′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Simulation
- 19′VfL Osnabrück, yellow card:Foul
- 29′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 45′Holstein Kiel, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- Half-time1 – 0
- 63′VfL Osnabrück, substitution:off
- 69′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 70′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 72′VfL Osnabrück, own goal:1–1Own goal
- 73′VfL Osnabrück, substitution:off
- 73′VfL Osnabrück, substitution:off
- 74′Holstein Kiel, second yellow card:Foul
- 87′VfL Osnabrück, substitution:off
- 87′VfL Osnabrück, substitution:off
- 89′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 89′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 90+1′VfL Osnabrück, yellow card:Timo SchultzDissent
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Player Ratings
Holstein Kiel
VfL Osnabrück
Match report
Holstein Kiel held 1-1 by VfL Osnabrück despite late red card
Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1-1 at the Holstein-Stadion on matchday 6 of the 2. Bundesliga. Phil Harres converted a penalty in the 45th minute to give the home side a half-time lead, but an own goal from Osnabrück's Hiroki Sekine in the 72nd minute settled a result that neither side could build on.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kiel had the better of the contest on the numbers, holding 58% of possession and taking 18 shots to 14, with 10 corners to Osnabrück's one. Only four of those efforts were on target, however, against three for the visitors, and the home side's pressure produced just the one goal before the break.
The match turned unexpectedly in the 74th minute, two minutes after the equaliser, when David Zec was sent off for Kiel. From that point neither side scored, and Tim Walter's ten men held on for a point against Timo Schultz's team. The draw lifted Kiel from 18th to 15th with four points, while Osnabrück moved from 11th to ninth on seven.
Guillermo Balzi was the highest-rated performer on the pitch with 8.2 for Kiel, ahead of team-mate Timon Weiner on 8.0. Adrian Beck was Osnabrück's best-rated player at 7.9.
Kiel won 10 corners to Osnabrück's one, underlining how much of the game was played in the visitors' half.
Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Holstein Kiel met VfL Osnabrück in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 11:00 UTC at Holstein-Stadion. Referee: Tom Bauer.
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · VfL Osnabrück · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 45' Goal (penalty): Phil Harres — 1–0
- 72' Goal (own goal): Hiroki Sekine — 1–1
- 74' Red card: David Zec
Starting line-ups
Holstein Kiel (4-1-4-1)
VfL Osnabrück (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Holstein Kiel 55%, the draw 26%, VfL Osnabrück 19%. It finished Holstein Kiel 1–1 VfL Osnabrück.
Holstein Kiel's rating edge carries it — Holstein Kiel are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Holstein Kiel's 55%. The draw at 26% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Holstein Kiel at 55%?
Holstein Kiel sit 190 points higher on our strength rating — 1526 to 1336. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,822 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 60–21–19.
Why only 55%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Holstein Kiel's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,116. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Holstein Kiel average 12 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 190 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. VfL Osnabrück are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.