Hertha BSC vs 11.10.26 11:302 – 1Full Time
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Hertha BSC hold off late Greuther Fürth rally to stay top
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at the Olympiastadion on Matchday 7 of the 2. Bundesliga, a result that took them to 21 points from seven games and kept them first in the table. The two sides were level at 0-0 at half-time, and the match did not come to life until the second half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Mads Pedersen broke the deadlock in the 65th minute, finishing a chance created by Josip Brekalo to make it 1-0. Fifteen minutes later Brekalo was involved again, setting up Paul Seguin for the second goal in the 80th minute and giving the hosts a two-goal cushion.
Greuther Fürth, who had gone into the game 14th with six points, pulled one back in the 90th minute when Jannis Heuer scored from an Aaron Keller assist. The visitors could not find an equaliser, and they finished the day 15th, still on six points after seven matches. Hertha's unbeaten run stretched to six league games under Stefan Leitl.
Josip Brekalo supplied the assists for both of Hertha's goals, to Pedersen and Seguin, and earned the match's top rating of 8.29. Seguin, who scored the second, followed on 8.1.
Fürth had 12 corners to Hertha's 5, yet only the one goal from open play came their way in the 90th minute.
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 (half-time 0–0).
Hertha BSC met SpVgg Greuther Fürth in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Olympiastadion. Referee: Tobias Stieler.
Team pages: Hertha BSC · SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 65' Goal: Mads Valentin (assist: Josip Brekalo) — 1–0 · Watch Mads Valentin's goal video (65')
- 80' Goal: Paul Seguin (assist: Josip Brekalo) — 2–0 · Watch Paul Seguin's goal video (80')
- 90' Goal: Jannis Heuer (assist: Aaron Keller) — 2–1 · Watch Jannis Heuer's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Hertha BSC (4-2-3-1)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Hertha BSC 68%, the draw 18%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14%. It finished Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Hertha BSC's rating gap decides it — Hertha BSC are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Hertha BSC's 68%. The draw at 18% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Hertha BSC at 68%?
Hertha BSC sit 172 points higher on our strength rating — 1523 to 1351. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,567 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–21–15.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,880. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 18 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Hertha BSC have won their last 4 home meetings with SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those matches were played between 17 September 2021 and 10 May 2026, across 1 Bundesliga game and 3 2. Bundesliga games. Latest home meeting: 10 May 2026 — Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The result before this winning run is outside our recorded meetings. Across 4,903 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 58.8%, compared with 57.7% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Mads Valentin's goal against SpVgg Greuther Fürth (65').
- Watch Paul Seguin's goal against SpVgg Greuther Fürth (80').
- Watch Jannis Heuer's goal against Hertha BSC (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Explore more on the Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.