1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 27′1. FC Kaiserslautern, yellow card:Not retreating
- 37′1. FC Nürnberg, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 46′1. FC Kaiserslautern, substitution:off
- 46′1. FC Kaiserslautern, substitution:off
- 56′1. FC Kaiserslautern, yellow card:Foul
- 58′1. FC Kaiserslautern, goal:0–1assist
- 66′1. FC Nürnberg, substitution:off
- 67′1. FC Kaiserslautern, substitution:off
- 78′1. FC Kaiserslautern, substitution:off
- 78′1. FC Kaiserslautern, substitution:off
- 79′1. FC Nürnberg, substitution:off
- 79′1. FC Nürnberg, substitution:off
- 88′1. FC Kaiserslautern, yellow card:Foul
- 90+5′1. FC Kaiserslautern, yellow card:Foul
- 90+6′1. FC Kaiserslautern, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Match report
Kaiserslautern edge Nürnberg 1-0 despite being outshot 31 to 12
1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1-0 at 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga on Matchday 9, taking all three points from the Max-Morlock-Stadion despite being heavily outplayed on the statistics. The match was goalless at half-time, with the home side pressing for an opening without finding a way through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The decisive moment arrived in the 58th minute. Mário Sauer supplied the pass and Erencan Yardımcı finished to put the visitors in front. It proved to be the only goal of the match, and Nürnberg could not find an equaliser in the half-hour that remained.
Nürnberg held 67% of possession and had 31 shots to 12, winning the corner count 11 to 3, yet Kaiserslautern's goalkeeper kept them out. Eight of the hosts' efforts were on target, against seven for the visitors. Kaiserslautern were booked five times to none for the home side. The result ended 1. FC Nürnberg's run of 14 games unbeaten, and it was their first league defeat of the season after eight league games without losing. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 28% chance of winning. Both sides play away in the DFB Pokal on Wednesday, Nürnberg at Bayer Leverkusen and Kaiserslautern at Hannover 96.
Julian Krahl was the top-rated player on the pitch with 8.98, and his saves preserved Kaiserslautern's clean sheet under sustained pressure. Mário Sauer, who set up the winner, was also among the top performers with a rating of 7.7.
Nürnberg had 31 shots to Kaiserslautern's 12 and still lost, a measure of how little the home dominance produced.
1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1–0 away against 1. FC Nürnberg (half-time 0–0).
1. FC Nürnberg met 1. FC Kaiserslautern in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 18:30 UTC at Max-Morlock-Stadion. Referee: Max Burda.
Team pages: 1. FC Nürnberg · 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 58' Goal: Erencan Yardımcı (assist: Mário Sauer) — 0–1 · Watch Erencan Yardımcı's goal video (58')
Starting line-ups
1. FC Nürnberg (4-2-3-1)
1. FC Kaiserslautern (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Julian Krahl
- 3 Alex Murphy
- 4 Maxwell Gyamfi
- 33 Jan Elvedi (c)
- 22 Mika Haas
- 21 Mário Sauer
- 8 Semih Şahin
- 26 Paul Joly
- 11 Ibrahim Kanate
- 15 Naatan Skyttä
- 45 Miloš Luković
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave 1. FC Nürnberg 44%, the draw 28%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 28%. It finished 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Home advantage gives Nürnberg a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage is what puts Nürnberg in front at 44%, helped a little by their greater control of the ball. The draw sits at 28%, close to the usual 27.4% for sides this level, nudged up slightly by finishing streaks and a typical scoring rate.
Why 1. FC Nürnberg in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1500 to 1463. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,522 home games (draw 27.4%, visitors 26.6%). 1. FC Nürnberg hold 9 more possession points (57 to 48 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.3% of 5,590 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. 1. FC Kaiserslautern sit -0.38 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,642 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. 1. FC Nürnberg scored +1.08 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,643 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw second, level with the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,297. The bounce-back factor adds 1.2 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
1. FC Nürnberg have gained 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,927 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Explore more on the 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.