Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 2′Dynamo Dresden, yellow card:Foul
- 9′Holstein Kiel, goal:1–0assist
- 37′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 57′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 61′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Argument
- 63′Dynamo Dresden, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 64′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Persistent infringement
- 66′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 72′Dynamo Dresden, substitution:off
- 73′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 73′Holstein Kiel, goal:2–0
- 84′Dynamo Dresden, substitution:off
- 84′Dynamo Dresden, substitution:off
- 85′Holstein Kiel, goal:3–0assist
- 88′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 88′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 90+3′Dynamo Dresden, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
Match report
Holstein Kiel end winless start with 3-0 win over Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel won a league game for the first time this season, beating Dynamo Dresden 3-0 at the Holstein-Stadion on Matchday 9 of the 2. Bundesliga. The result ended a run of eight league games without a victory and moved Tim Walter's side from 18th to 13th.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Giorgi Kvilitaia put the hosts ahead in the ninth minute, converting a chance created by Phil Harres, and Kiel took that single-goal lead into the interval. Dresden, who had started the day 12th, had the greater share of the ball and found no way back before the break.
The game stayed at 1-0 until the 73rd minute, when Jonas Therkelsen made it 2-0. Twelve minutes later, in the 85th, Therkelsen turned provider, setting up Harres to complete the scoring. Kiel were booked five times to Dresden's one, and were left to protect their lead without much of the ball.
The defeat left Dresden 15th on eight points, level with Kiel, who sit two places above them. Both clubs return to action in the DFB Pokal on Wednesday, Kiel at home to 1899 Hoffenheim and Dresden at home to FC Schalke 04.
Jonas Therkelsen scored the second goal in the 73rd minute and set up Phil Harres for the third, earning the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.25.
Dresden held 63% of the possession yet trailed by three goals, with Kiel managing 37% of the ball.
Holstein Kiel beat Dynamo Dresden 3–0 (half-time 1–0).
Holstein Kiel met Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC at Holstein-Stadion. Referee: Timo Gerach.
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 9' Goal: Giorgi Kvilitaia (assist: Phil Harres) — 1–0
- 73' Goal: Jonas Therkelsen — 2–0
- 85' Goal: Phil Harres (assist: Jonas Therkelsen) — 3–0
Starting line-ups
Holstein Kiel (4-4-2)
Dynamo Dresden (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Holstein Kiel 43%, the draw 26%, Dynamo Dresden 31%. It finished Holstein Kiel 3–0 Dynamo Dresden.
Home advantage gives Holstein Kiel a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1403 to 1406, the usual home advantage is what puts Holstein Kiel in front at 43%, even though the rating edges very slightly towards Dynamo Dresden. The draw sits at 26%, just under the usual 27% for sides this level, nudged down slightly by both teams' own recent games averaging 2.9 goals.
Why Holstein Kiel in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1403 to 1406. Sides this close won 42.4% of 15,614 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 26% and Dynamo Dresden at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,185.
What did we measure but not count?
Holstein Kiel sit -0.40 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Holstein Kiel have won their last 5 home meetings with Dynamo Dresden. Those matches were played between 5 November 2017 and 20 December 2025, across 5 2. Bundesliga games. Latest home meeting: 20 December 2025 — Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden. The result before this winning run is outside our recorded meetings. Across 5,376 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 59.3%, compared with 57.9% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.