Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 33′Arminia Bielefeld, yellow card:Time wasting
- 41′Arminia Bielefeld, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 63′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 63′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 63′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 76′Arminia Bielefeld, substitution:off
- 76′Arminia Bielefeld, substitution:off
- 78′Hertha BSC, yellow card:Foul
- 80′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 81′Arminia Bielefeld, substitution:off
- 81′Arminia Bielefeld, substitution:off
- 85′Hertha BSC, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 87′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 88′Arminia Bielefeld, substitution:off
- 90′Hertha BSC, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
Match report
Hertha BSC edge Arminia Bielefeld through late Brekalo penalty
Hertha BSC extended their lead at the top of the 2. Bundesliga with a 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld at the Olympiastadion on Matchday 9. The game was goalless at half-time and stayed that way until Josip Brekalo converted a penalty in the 90+2 minute, the only goal of the afternoon.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side controlled the contest from the start, holding 71% of possession and having 15 shots to 6, with four on target to one. Their expected goals figure of 1.98 against 0.37 reflected a one-sided game in terms of chances, even if the breakthrough took until stoppage time.
The result lifted Hertha to 25 points from nine games, 14 points clear of eighth-placed Arminia Bielefeld, who remained on 11. Hertha are now unbeaten in 10 games. Hertha travel to SSV Jeddeloh in the DFB Pokal on Wednesday, while Arminia Bielefeld host Eintracht Braunschweig in the 2. Bundesliga on Friday.
Niklas Kolbe was the highest-rated performer on the pitch with 7.85, with Linus Gechter next on 7.66 as Hertha kept the match under control.
Hertha had 71% of the possession against 29% for Arminia Bielefeld.
Hertha BSC beat Arminia Bielefeld 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Hertha BSC met Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC at Olympiastadion. Referee: C. Ballweg.
Team pages: Hertha BSC · Arminia Bielefeld · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 90' Goal (penalty): Josip Brekalo — 1–0 · Watch Josip Brekalo's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Hertha BSC (4-2-3-1)
Arminia Bielefeld (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Hertha BSC 58%, the draw 23%, Arminia Bielefeld 19%. It finished Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Hertha BSC's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give Hertha BSC 58% mainly because they sit 103 points higher on our strength rating, 1525 to 1422, and they also have the usual home advantage. The draw starts from 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 23% because both teams' own recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Hertha BSC at 58%?
Hertha BSC sit 103 points higher on our strength rating — 1525 to 1422. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 53–26–21.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Arminia Bielefeld at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Hertha BSC scored +0.39 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,154 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.1% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last five: Hertha BSC W-W-W-W-D, Arminia Bielefeld D-L-D-W-W — Hertha BSC are clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 9 on 90-minute results, all competitions (7 wins, 2 draws), a run going back to August 2026. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.9% of 2023 games when clearly hotter and 43.9% of 3918 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld. Explore more on the Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.