Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor — Süper Lig: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 26′Kocaelispor, goal:1–0
- 28′Kocaelispor, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Kocaelispor, substitution:off
- 46′Kocaelispor, substitution:off
- 68′Kocaelispor, substitution:off
- 69′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 77′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 82′Kocaelispor, substitution:off
- 88′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 90′Kocaelispor, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Kocaelispor
Samsunspor
Match report
Ayé strike gives Kocaelispor narrow win over Samsunspor
Kocaelispor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at the Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu in a Süper Lig fixture from round four of the Regular Season. Florian Ayé settled the contest in the 26th minute, and the home side led 1-0 at half-time before holding on for the remainder of the match to secure all three points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Samsunspor pushed for an equaliser and finished with the greater share of possession and shots, but they could not find a way past Kocaelispor's defence. The visitors registered 19 shots to the hosts' nine, yet only matched them with four on target apiece, a sign that clear-cut chances remained at a premium despite Samsunspor's territorial dominance.
The result lifted Kocaelispor to third in the table with nine points from four games, while Samsunspor sit 13th on four points from the same number of matches. Kocaelispor's İnan will take encouragement from a fourth-minute-plus victory that arrested a run of three straight defeats, whereas Thorsten Fink's side continue to search for consistency after a mixed run of results.
Florian Ayé scored the only goal of the match in the 26th minute and was rated the top performer on the pitch with an 8.06 mark.
Samsunspor held 56% of the possession and out-shot their hosts 19 to nine, yet still finished the match without a goal to show for it.
Kocaelispor beat Samsunspor 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Kocaelispor met Samsunspor in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 6 September 2026, 17:00 UTC at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. Referee: R. Coskunses.
Team pages: Kocaelispor · Samsunspor · Süper Lig
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Florian Ayé — 1–0 · Watch Florian Ayé's goal video (26')
Starting line-ups
Kocaelispor (4-1-4-1)
Samsunspor (4-4-2)
- 1 Okan Kocuk
- 17 Logi Tómasson
- 34 Gabriele Guarino
- 22 Yunus Çift
- 2 Joe Mendes
- 11 Emre Kılınç (c)
- 8 Samed Onur
- 5 Celil Yüksel
- 20 Yalçın Kayan
- 42 Anto Sekongo
- 30 Saikuba Jarju
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Kocaelispor 30%, the draw 31%, Samsunspor 39%. It finished Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor.
Samsunspor's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Samsunspor are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Samsunspor the lean. The draw at 31% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Samsunspor at 39%?
Samsunspor sit 189 points higher on our strength rating — 1510 to 1699. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,146 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Kocaelispor's column. Across 10,972 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–25–50.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Kocaelispor at 30%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Kocaelispor win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,753. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Samsunspor scored +0.75 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,838 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Kocaelispor have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Süper Lig fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor. Explore more on the Kocaelispor and Samsunspor team pages or the Süper Lig page.