Omonia Nicosia vs Kairat Almaty — UEFA Champions League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 13′Omonia Nicosia, goal:1–0
- 34′Omonia Nicosia, red card:Violent conduct
- 36′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 46′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 56′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Omonia Nicosia, yellow card:Foul
- 58′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 68′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 69′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 77′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 83′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 83′Kairat Almaty, substitution:G. Mendonsaoff
- 90+7′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Match report
Omonia Nicosia vs Kairat Almaty — the facts
Omonia Nicosia beat Kairat Almaty 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Omonia Nicosia met Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Champions League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Wednesday, 22 July 2026, 17:00 UTC at GSP Stadium. Referee: Gustavo Correia.
Team pages: Omonia Nicosia · Kairat Almaty · UEFA Champions League
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Panagiotis Andreou — 1–0 · Watch Panagiotis Andreou's goal video (13')
- 34' Red card: Loïc Négo
Starting line-ups
Omonia Nicosia (4-3-3)
Kairat Almaty (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Omonia Nicosia 51%, the draw 29%, Kairat Almaty 20%. It finished Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Kairat Almaty.
Omonia Nicosia's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Omonia Nicosia are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Omonia Nicosia the lean. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 26.5% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Omonia Nicosia at 51%?
Omonia Nicosia sit 76 points higher on our strength rating — 1615 to 1538. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.5% of 10,263 such games. Omonia Nicosia hold 7 more possession points (47 to 40 in recent games) across a 76-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,529 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Kairat Almaty at 20%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Kairat Almaty win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,379. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Omonia Nicosia sit -0.42 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Omonia Nicosia vs Kairat Almaty final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Champions League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Kairat Almaty. Explore more on the Omonia Nicosia and Kairat Almaty team pages or the UEFA Champions League page.