Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 35′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Leandro GodoyHolding
- 37′Qarabag, yellow card:Roughing
- Half-time
- 56′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 56′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 73′CSKA Sofia, substitution:offL. Godoy
- 73′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- 74′Qarabag, substitution:J. Mouaddiboff
- 74′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 77′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Facundo RodríguezRoughing
- 78′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 84′CSKA Sofia, substitution:T. OuorouoffA. Martino
- 90+1′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- 90+1′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- Full-time
Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
Qarabag
4-2-3-1
CSKA Sofia
4-4-2
Key Stats
Match report
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia — the facts
Qarabag and CSKA Sofia drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Qarabag met CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC at Azərsun Arena. Referee: Daniele Chiffi.
Team pages: Qarabag · CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League
Starting line-ups
Qarabag (4-2-3-1)
- 99 Mateusz Kochalski
- 5 Bruno Langa
- 4 Bence Várkonyi
- 4 B. Varkonyi
- 55 Badavi Hüseynov
- 2 Matheus Silva
- 8 Marko Janković
- 35 Pedro Bicalho
- 10 Richard Almeida
- 10 Abdellah Zoubir
- 20 Kady Borges
- 21 Oleksii Kashchuk
- 11 Zakaria Sawo
CSKA Sofia (4-4-2)
- 21 F. Lapoukhov
- 21 Fedor Lapoukhov
- 17 Ángelo Martino
- 14 Teodor Ivanov
- 32 Facundo Santiago Rodríguez
- 2 Pastor
- 8 Stefano Sensi
- 6 Bruno Jordão
- 5 Jean-Philippe Gbamin
- 7 Max Ebong
- 28 Ioannis Pittas
- 9 L. Godoy
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Qarabag 59%, the draw 21%, CSKA Sofia 20%. It finished Qarabag 0–0 CSKA Sofia.
Qarabag's rating edge carries it — Qarabag are the stronger side on our strength rating, and UEFA Europa League home advantage on top gives Qarabag a clear lead. The draw at 21% is trimmed by a league that produces few draws.
Why Qarabag at 59%?
Qarabag sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1684 to 1536. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,558 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (22.8% vs 24.9% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.5% of 4,370 games vs 44.9% across all 98,257 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 60–26–14.
Why only 59%?
CSKA Sofia hold 5 more possession points (50 to 45 in recent games) across a 148-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,533 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,701. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.1 points off. The goals environment takes 1.9 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Qarabag scored +0.51 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,703 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.2% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Qarabag and CSKA Sofia team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.