CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 39′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Tripping
- Half-time
- 48′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 50′Qarabag, yellow card:Roughing
- 55′Qarabag, yellow card:
- 70′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 71′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- 75′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:
- 82′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 82′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 82′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 89′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- 90+2′Qarabag, substitution:off
- Full-time
- 95′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Holding
- 99′CSKA Sofia, substitution:off
- 100′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 105+3′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Roughing
- Half-time · E.T.
- 107′Qarabag, yellow card:Roughing
- 112′CSKA Sofia, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
CSKA Sofia5
Qarabag4Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
CSKA Sofia
4-1-4-1
Qarabag
4-2-3-1
Key Stats
Match report
CSKA Sofia edge out Qarabag on penalties in Europa League qualifying
CSKA Sofia and Qarabag could not be separated after extra time in their UEFA Europa League second qualifying round tie at National Stadium Vasil Levski, with the score locked at 0-0 after both 90 minutes and the additional period. The contest went to a penalty shootout, which CSKA Sofia won 5-4 to progress.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
With no goals or bookable flashpoints of note recorded in the events list, the tie was largely a tactical stalemate. Qarabag saw more of the ball, holding 58 percent possession to CSKA Sofia's 42, and also edged the shot count on target five to three, while winning ten corners compared to the hosts' two.
CSKA Sofia, however, were the more combative side without the ball, committing 26 fouls to Qarabag's 14 and picking up six yellow cards against three for the visitors. Despite the imbalance in territory and chances, neither side could find a breakthrough in normal or extra time, leaving the shootout to decide who advances.
Qarabag's dominance in possession, at 58 percent to CSKA Sofia's 42, was not enough to prevent a penalty shootout defeat.
CSKA Sofia and Qarabag drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0). CSKA Sofia won the penalty shootout 5–4.
CSKA Sofia met Qarabag in the UEFA Europa League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC at Vasil Levski National Sports Academy. Referee: Bram Van Driessche.
Team pages: CSKA Sofia · Qarabag · UEFA Europa League
Starting line-ups
CSKA Sofia (4-1-4-1)
Qarabag (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave CSKA Sofia 38%, the draw 24%, Qarabag 38%. It finished CSKA Sofia 0–0 Qarabag.
Anyone's game — Qarabag are the stronger side on our strength rating, and UEFA Europa League home advantage plus CSKA Sofia's control of the ball is not enough to separate them. The draw at 24% is trimmed by a league that produces few draws.
Why are CSKA Sofia and Qarabag level?
Home ground, against the rating. Qarabag sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1536 to 1684. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 12,995 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (22.8% vs 24.9% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.5% of 4,379 games vs 44.9% across all 98,666 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. CSKA Sofia hold 7 more possession points (52 to 45 in recent games) across a 148-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,548 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 38% each?
Because Qarabag are the stronger side on our strength rating. The draw at 24% takes the rest.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,814. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.1 points off. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Qarabag scored +0.51 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,719 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.0% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the CSKA Sofia and Qarabag team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.