Match Events
- 26′Ascoli, yellow card:Foul
- 33′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 47′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- 51′Carrarese, goal:0–1assist
- 53′Ascoli, yellow card:Argument
- 58′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 58′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 63′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 63′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 68′Carrarese, yellow card:Time wasting
- 69′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 70′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 71′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 79′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 79′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 82′Ascoli, goal:1–1assist
- 82′Ascoli, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 83′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 85′Ascoli, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Ascoli
Carrarese
Match report
Gori's late leveller earns Ascoli a point against Carrarese
Ascoli and Carrarese shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw at the Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, in a Serie B round two fixture that saw the visitors take an early second-half lead before the home side hit back late on. The result left Ascoli third in the table on four points, with Carrarese thirteenth on one after two matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 51st minute when Fabio Abiuso converted from Jonas Rouhi's assist to put Carrarese 1-0 ahead, a rare bright spell for a side that had arrived on the back of four straight league defeats and a draw. Ascoli, third in the table before kick-off, pushed for a response and got it in the 82nd minute, Gabriele Gori finishing off a Giacomo De Pieri assist to make it 1-1, a scoreline that held to the final whistle.
Ascoli dominated territory with 72 percent possession and edged the shot count 20 to 18, though Carrarese's expected goals figure of 1.83 outstripped the home side's 1.6, reflecting the visitors' clinical use of their fewer chances. Both teams picked up cards without incident of a red, and Ascoli's slight edge in shots on target, six to four, underlined their greater attacking pressure across the ninety minutes.
Gori scored the equaliser in the 82nd minute and finished with a match rating of 7.7 for Ascoli, level with Rouhi, whose assist for Abiuso's opener proved decisive in setting Carrarese's tone before the comeback.
Ascoli's 72 percent share of possession pointed to a match in which the home side controlled the ball for long spells without translating that dominance into a winning goal.
Ascoli and Carrarese drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Ascoli met Carrarese in the Serie B (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Referee: Andrea Zanotti.
Key moments
- 51' Goal: Fabio Abiuso (assist: Jonas Rouhi) — 0–1
- 82' Goal: Gabriele Gori (assist: Giacomo De Pieri) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Ascoli (3-5-2)
Carrarese (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Ascoli 39%, the draw 38%, Carrarese 23%. It finished Ascoli 1–1 Carrarese.
Anyone's game — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and a weak Serie B home advantage plus the early-season home fade is not enough to separate them. The draw at 38% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Ascoli in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1454 to 1404. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,507 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%).
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,023 games vs 44.9% across all 99,457 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Ascoli's column. Across 10,761 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Carrarese win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,679. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.3 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Ascoli are newly promoted — game 2 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. Ascoli's last five: W-L-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2195 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4007 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Ascoli vs Carrarese final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Ascoli and Carrarese team pages or the Serie B page.