HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 46′Empoli, substitution:off
- 46′Empoli, substitution:off
- 48′Empoli, VAR review:Penalty confirmed
- 50′Empoli, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- 57′Palermo, goal:1–1assist
- 57′Empoli, yellow card:Argument
- 65′Palermo, goal:1–2assist
- 69′Palermo, goal:1–3assist
- 71′Empoli, substitution:off
- 71′Empoli, substitution:off
- 75′Palermo, yellow card:Foul
- 76′Empoli, VAR review:
- 79′Empoli, penalty goal:2–3Penalty
- 79′Palermo, substitution:off
- 79′Palermo, substitution:off
- 79′Palermo, substitution:off
- 80′Palermo, substitution:off
- 85′Palermo, substitution:off
- 88′Palermo, goal:2–4assist
- 89′Empoli, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 4
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Empoli
Palermo
Match report
Palermo come from behind to beat Empoli 4-2 in Serie B
Palermo came from behind to win 4-2 at Empoli in a Serie B Matchday 6 fixture at Carlo Castellani, a result that left the visitors top of the table with 16 points from six games. Empoli, 14th with six points, had led through a penalty before the match turned decisively against them.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, and the breakthrough came five minutes after the restart when Edoardo Saporiti converted from the spot in the 50th minute. Palermo levelled within seven minutes, Joel Pohjanpalo scoring from Mattia Bani's assist in the 57th.
Antonio Palumbo put the visitors ahead in the 65th minute from Dennis Johnsen's pass, and four minutes later the roles were reversed, Johnsen scoring from Palumbo's assist to make it 3-1. Bohdan Popov pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 79th minute, but Tommaso Cassandro settled it in the 88th, set up by Alessandro Gabrielloni.
Palermo, managed by F. Inzaghi, controlled 59 per cent of possession and created far more than their hosts. Empoli, under M. Andreoletti, managed only two shots on target and one corner across the match.
Antonio Palumbo scored the goal that put Palermo 2-1 ahead and set up Johnsen's strike four minutes later, earning a match-high rating of 9.0.
Palermo had 35 shots to Empoli's six.
Palermo won 4–2 away against Empoli (half-time 0–0).
Empoli met Palermo in the Serie B (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Carlo Castellani. Referee: Livio Marinelli.
Key moments
- 50' Goal (penalty): Edoardo Saporiti — 1–0
- 57' Goal: Joel Pohjanpalo (assist: Mattia Bani) — 1–1
- 65' Goal: Antonio Palumbo (assist: Dennis Johnsen) — 1–2
- 69' Goal: Dennis Johnsen (assist: Antonio Palumbo) — 1–3
- 79' Goal (penalty): Bohdan Popov — 2–3
- 88' Goal: Tommaso Cassandro (assist: Alessandro Gabrielloni) — 2–4
Starting line-ups
Empoli (3-5-2)
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Empoli 19%, the draw 35%, Palermo 46%. It finished Empoli 2–4 Palermo.
Palermo's rating gap, but the draw is in play — Palermo are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and a weak Serie B home advantage plus the early-season home fade on top give Palermo the lean. The draw at 35% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Palermo at 46%?
Palermo sit 184 points higher on our strength rating — 1375 to 1559. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,670 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.0% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,063 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Empoli's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–25–50.
Why only 46%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 46% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 35% and Empoli at 19%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Empoli win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,284. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 6.9 points. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palermo have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Empoli in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Last five: Empoli W-L-W-L-L, Palermo W-W-W-D-W — Palermo are clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 8 on 90-minute results, all competitions (7 wins, 1 draw), a run going back to May 2026. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.3% of 1897 games when clearly hotter and 43.7% of 3639 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Empoli vs Palermo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Empoli 2–4 Palermo. Explore more on the Empoli and Palermo team pages or the Serie B page.