Atletico-MG vs 02.09.26 00:002 – 1Full TimeAgg: 3 – 2
Cruzeiro — Copa Do Brasil: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro — the facts
Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Atletico-MG met Cruzeiro in the Copa Do Brasil (Quarter-finals). Kick-off was Wednesday, 2 September 2026, 00:00 UTC at MRV Arena. Referee: Raphael Claus.
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Cruzeiro · Copa Do Brasil
Key moments
- 30' Goal (penalty): Kaio Jorge — 0–1 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (30')
- 61' Red card: Lucas Villalba
- 77' Goal: Victor Hugo (assist: Fred) — 1–1 · Watch Victor Hugo's goal video (77')
- 88' Goal: Fred (assist: Victor Hugo) — 2–1 · Watch Fred's goal video (88')
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico-MG 26%, the draw 32%, Cruzeiro 42%. It finished Atletico-MG 2–1 Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Cruzeiro are the stronger side on our strength rating, and neutral ground plus their control of the ball on top give Cruzeiro the lean. The draw at 32% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Cruzeiro at 42%?
Cruzeiro sit 52 points higher on our strength rating — 1716 to 1767. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,573 such games. A final at a neutral venue: Atletico-MG lose the usual home lift, so the class read is re-centred. On grounds we detect as neutral, listed-home sides won 44.5% of 27,099 games vs 45.2% at real homes. Cruzeiro hold 7 more possession points (56 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.2% across 5,562 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 32% and Atletico-MG at 26%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Atletico-MG win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,165. The goals environment adds 3.6 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Atletico-MG have gained 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,282 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. All square after the first leg (Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico-MG) — the aggregate is what counts. Two-leg ties bend incentives, and we've now measured them: one- and two-goal first-leg leads carried forward almost exactly as the class table predicts — no measurable edge either way, so 0 points and the aggregate does the talking. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Copa Do Brasil fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Atletico-MG (30').
- Watch Victor Hugo's goal against Cruzeiro (77').
- Watch Fred's goal against Cruzeiro (88').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico-MG 2–1 Cruzeiro. Explore more on the Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro team pages or the Copa Do Brasil page.