RB Leipzig vs 13.10.26 19:001 – 0Full Time
PSV Eindhoven — UEFA Champions League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Gruda's late goal gives RB Leipzig narrow win over PSV Eindhoven
RB Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1-0 at Leipzig Red Bull Arena in the second round of the Champions League league stage. The two sides were level at 0-0 at half-time, and it took until the 75th minute for the contest to be settled.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Brajan Gruda scored the only goal of the evening on 75 minutes, giving the hosts the lead they would not relinquish. Leipzig had been the more threatening side in front of goal, taking 19 shots to 11 and generating 2.19 expected goals against PSV's 1.46.
PSV held the larger share of the ball, with 57 per cent possession to Leipzig's 43, and won 12 corners to six. They registered five shots on target to the hosts' six, but could not find an equaliser. The match was also cleanly contested, with no red cards and three yellows in total.
Leipzig next travel to Bayern München in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, while PSV are away to ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie the same day.
Maarten Vandevoordt earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.88, as Leipzig kept a clean sheet. Gruda, rated 8.2, scored the decisive goal.
PSV won 12 corners to Leipzig's six but could not turn that pressure into a goal.
RB Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
RB Leipzig met PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 2). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Leipzig Red Bull Arena. Referee: Nick Walsh.
Team pages: RB Leipzig · PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League
Key moments
- 75' Goal: Brajan Gruda — 1–0 · Watch Brajan Gruda's goal video (75')
Starting line-ups
RB Leipzig (4-2-3-1)
PSV Eindhoven (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave RB Leipzig 43%, the draw 24%, PSV Eindhoven 33%. It finished RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven.
Home advantage edges Leipzig ahead of stronger PSV — Our strength rating has PSV Eindhoven 49 points higher, but RB Leipzig's usual home advantage and PSV's recent scoring above their chances, a hot streak of the kind that tends to cool, give Leipzig 43% to PSV's 33%. The draw sits at 24%, down from a usual 29%, because both sides' recent games average 4.3 goals and that finishing streak lowers it further.
Why RB Leipzig at 43%?
Home ground, against the rating. PSV Eindhoven sit 49 points higher on our strength rating — 1801 to 1753. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,382 such games. PSV Eindhoven scored +0.70 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,458 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 43%?
Because PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 24% and PSV Eindhoven at 33%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 4.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,897. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
RB Leipzig are unbeaten in their last 10 home Bundesliga games: 8 wins and 2 draws. The run began on 15 February 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 31 January 2026 — RB Leipzig 1–2 FSV Mainz 05. Latest home league result: 10 October 2026 — RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt. Across 13,702 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Out: Christoph Baumgartner, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Champions League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven. Explore more on the RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven team pages or the UEFA Champions League page.