FC Midtjylland vs 22.10.26 19:000 – 1Full Time
St. Truiden — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUEFAUEFA.comMatch Events
- 9′St. Truiden, yellow card:
- 22′FC Midtjylland, yellow card:Foul
- 42′St. Truiden, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′FC Midtjylland, substitution:off
- 46′FC Midtjylland, substitution:off
- 46′FC Midtjylland, substitution:off
- 59′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 69′FC Midtjylland, substitution:off
- 72′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 72′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 79′FC Midtjylland, substitution:off
- 85′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 85′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 90+4′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
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FC Midtjylland
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Match report
St. Truiden win 1-0 at FC Midtjylland despite being outshot
St. Truiden took a 1-0 win away to FC Midtjylland at MCH Arena in the second matchday of the UEFA Europa Conference League's league stage, ending the home side's run of five games unbeaten. The only goal arrived just before the interval and proved enough.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Frederic Soelle Soelle scored it in the 42nd minute, set up by Robert-Jan Vanwesemael, to put the visitors 1-0 up. There were no further goals after the break, and St. Truiden held that advantage through the second half without conceding.
The numbers pointed towards a home side that pushed hard. FC Midtjylland had 19 shots to 15 and an expected goals figure of 2.7 to 1.7, yet only four of their efforts were on target against six for St. Truiden, who also had 57% of the possession to the hosts' 43%.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given St. Truiden a 19% chance of winning. St. Truiden next travel to Club Brugge KV in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, while FC Midtjylland host Ajax in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November.
Visar Musliu earned the highest rating of any player, 8.6, for St. Truiden. Vanwesemael, who provided the assist for the winning goal, was rated 8.2.
St. Truiden had 57% of the possession, even though FC Midtjylland had more shots, 19 to 15.
St. Truiden won 1–0 away against FC Midtjylland (half-time 0–1).
FC Midtjylland met St. Truiden in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 2). Kick-off was Thursday, 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at MCH Arena. Referee: Juxhin Xhaja.
Team pages: FC Midtjylland · St. Truiden · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 42' Goal: Frederic Soelle Soelle (assist: Robert-Jan Vanwesemael) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
FC Midtjylland (3-1-4-2)
St. Truiden (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Midtjylland 57%, the draw 24%, St. Truiden 19%. It finished FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden.
Midtjylland's higher strength rating gives them a clear lead — We give FC Midtjylland 57% mainly because they sit 102 points higher on our strength rating, 1662 to 1560, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 24%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged slightly down because both teams' recent games average 3.1 goals.
Why FC Midtjylland at 57%?
FC Midtjylland sit 102 points higher on our strength rating — 1662 to 1560. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,383 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 60–21–19.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and St. Truiden at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,276.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Midtjylland scored +0.40 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,871 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.3% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. FC Midtjylland's last five in the competitions we cover: W-W-W-W-D — the hotter side across the games we track. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.6% of 1912 games when clearly hotter and 43.6% of 3672 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden. Explore more on the FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.