Kazakhstan vs 02.10.26 14:001 – 2Full Time
Moldova — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Moldova holds off Kazakhstan fightback to win in Astana
Moldova came from a goal down in form to beat Kazakhstan 2-1 at Astana Arena in a UEFA Nations League League C Group 3 fixture, moving to within sight of the top of the table while the hosts remain stuck near the bottom. The three goals in this contest came in a flurry either side of half-time before Kazakhstan rallied too late to find an equaliser.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Nicky Cleșcenco broke the deadlock deep into first-half injury time, finishing in the 45+1st minute to send Moldova in 1-0 up at the break. Five minutes after the restart, Petru Popescu doubled the lead, converting a chance teed up by Sergiu Perciun to make it 2-0. Kazakhstan responded through Nuraly Alip in the 64th minute, who finished off a pass from Bauyrzhan Islamkhan to pull one back, but the hosts could not find a second.
Kazakhstan dominated territory with 65 percent possession and a corner count of 11 to 4, yet it was Moldova who made their moments count, out-shooting on target 8 to 4 despite facing 19 attempts to their 16. The result lifted Moldova to second in the group on four points from three games, while Kazakhstan sit fourth with just one point from the same number of matches.
Cleșcenco struck the opener in first-half stoppage time and finished with a match-high rating of 8.18, while Popescu followed up with Moldova's second only minutes into the second half.
Despite enjoying 65 percent of possession, Kazakhstan managed only four shots on target compared to Moldova's eight.
Moldova won 2–1 away against Kazakhstan (half-time 0–1).
Kazakhstan met Moldova in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Astana Arena. Referee: Marian Barbu.
Team pages: Kazakhstan · Moldova · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 45+1' Goal: Nicky Cleșcenco — 0–1 · Watch Nicky Cleșcenco's goal video (45+1')
- 50' Goal: Petru Popescu (assist: Sergiu Perciun) — 0–2
- 64' Goal: Nuraly Alip (assist: Bauyrzhan Islamkhan) — 1–2 · Watch Nuraly Alip's goal video (64')
Starting line-ups
Kazakhstan (4-2-3-1)
- 16 Aleksandr Zarutskiy
- 11 Yan Vorogovskiy
- 3 Nuraly Alip
- 23 Temirlan Erlanov
- 13 Aleksandr Mrynskiy
- 18 Dinmukhamed Karaman
- 20 Ramazan Orazov
- 7 Galymzhan Kenzhebek
- 9 Bauyrzhan Islamkhan (c)
- 21 Elkhan Astanov
- 19 Ramazan Karimov
Moldova (5-3-2)
- 12 Dumitru Celeadnic
- 2 Oleg Reabciuk
- 6 Mihail Gherasimencov
- 18 Iurie Iovu
- 4 Vladislav Baboglo
- 8 Ioan-Călin Revenco
- 9 Sergiu Perciun
- 22 Vadim Rață
- 14 Vladimir Fratea
- 20 Nicky Cleșcenco
- 15 Petru Popescu
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Kazakhstan 68%, the draw 18%, Moldova 14%. It finished Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova.
Kazakhstan's rating gap decides it — Kazakhstan are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Kazakhstan's 68%. The draw at 18% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Kazakhstan at 68%?
Kazakhstan sit 188 points higher on our strength rating — 1474 to 1287. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,607 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–23–15.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Moldova at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,787. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Moldova are 2 games into a new manager (L. Popescu), appointed 31 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Kazakhstan (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Moldova (10) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Kazakhstan vs Moldova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Nicky Cleșcenco's goal against Kazakhstan (45+1').
- Watch Nuraly Alip's goal against Moldova (64').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova. Explore more on the Kazakhstan and Moldova team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.