Match report
De Bruyne brace fires Belgium past Türkiye in Nations League
Belgium beat Türkiye 3-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, moving them to second in Group 1 while Türkiye remain bottom without a point after three games. The scoreline reflected a comfortable evening for the hosts, who led at half-time and pulled away after the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kevin De Bruyne opened the scoring in the 10th minute, finishing from an assist by Dodi Lukebakio to put Belgium ahead inside the opening quarter of an hour. Türkiye could not find a response before the interval, and De Bruyne struck again in the 59th minute, converting after Youri Tielemans supplied the pass to double the advantage.
Romelu Lukaku added a third in the 76th minute, latching on to a Charles De Ketelaere assist to complete the scoring. Despite Türkiye having more attempts on goal, Belgium made their chances count and closed out the win without reply.
No cards of note altered the course of the match, and Belgium saw out the remaining minutes comfortably to register a routine three-goal victory over their opponents.
Kevin De Bruyne scored twice, in the 10th and 59th minutes, to lead Belgium's attack with a rating of 9.54, though it was goalkeeper Senne Lammens who topped the performers list with a 9.63 rating despite neither scoring nor assisting.
Türkiye managed more shots overall, 23 to Belgium's 17, yet Belgium were far more precise, landing 10 on target compared with Türkiye's 8.
Belgium beat Türkiye 3–0 (half-time 1–0).
Belgium met Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Referee: Rohit Saggi.
Team pages: Belgium · Türkiye · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 10' Goal: Kevin De Bruyne (assist: Dodi Lukebakio) — 1–0 · Watch Kevin De Bruyne's goal video (10')
- 59' Goal: Kevin De Bruyne (assist: Youri Tielemans) — 2–0 · Watch Kevin De Bruyne's goal video (59')
- 76' Goal: Romelu Lukaku (assist: Charles De Ketelaere) — 3–0 · Watch Romelu Lukaku's goal video (76')
Starting line-ups
Belgium (4-3-3)
Türkiye (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Belgium 57%, the draw 24%, Türkiye 19%. It finished Belgium 3–0 Türkiye.
Belgium's rating edge carries it — Belgium are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Belgium's 57%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Belgium at 57%?
Belgium sit 160 points higher on our strength rating — 1937 to 1777. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 13,287 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–16–20.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Türkiye at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,082.
What did we measure but not count?
Türkiye scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,823 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Belgium are 2 games into a new manager (M. van Bommel), appointed 31 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Belgium vs Türkiye final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Kevin De Bruyne's goal against Türkiye (10').
- Watch Kevin De Bruyne's goal against Türkiye (59').
- Watch Romelu Lukaku's goal against Türkiye (76').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Belgium 3–0 Türkiye. Explore more on the Belgium and Türkiye team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.