Mafra vs Santa Clara — Taça de Portugal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 7′Santa Clara, goal:0–1assist
- 31′Santa Clara, yellow card:
- 35′Mafra, goal:1–1
- 43′Santa Clara, yellow card:
- 45+2′Santa Clara, second yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 1
- 61′Santa Clara, goal:1–2assist
- 70′Santa Clara, yellow card:
- 76′Mafra, yellow card:
- 89′Mafra, yellow card:
- 90′Mafra, goal:2–2
- 90+3′Santa Clara, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 2
- 102′Mafra, goal:3–2
- 105′Mafra, second yellow card:
Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
Mafra
Formation unavailable
Santa Clara
Formation unavailable
Key Stats
Top Performers
Goals
Assists
Match report
Mafra vs Santa Clara — the facts
Mafra beat Santa Clara 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
Mafra met Santa Clara in the Taça de Portugal (Round of 64). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Team pages: Mafra · Santa Clara · Taça de Portugal
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Djé Tavares (assist: Vinícius Lopes) — 0–1
- 35' Goal: R. Matos — 1–1
- 45+2' Red card: Djé Tavares
- 61' Goal: Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira (assist: João Vasconcelos) — 1–2
- 90' Goal: R. Matos — 2–2
- 102' Goal: Mamor Niang — 3–2
- 105' Red card: L. Neves
Starting line-ups
Mafra
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Mafra 16%, the draw 25%, Santa Clara 59%. It finished Mafra 2–2 Santa Clara.
Santa Clara's clear strength edge leads the way — Santa Clara sit 212 points higher on our strength rating, 1556 to 1344, and this cup tie across divisions adds to their edge over a Mafra side whose league sits outside the divisions we rate. The draw sits at 25%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, with low-scoring recent games nudging it up and the cup-tie setting pulling it back down.
Why Santa Clara at 59%?
Santa Clara sit 212 points higher on our strength rating — 1556 to 1344. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,700 such games. A cup tie across divisions: Santa Clara carry a 212-point rating edge over Mafra, whose league sits outside the divisions we rate. Mafra have fewer than 25 rated matches, and their strength estimate began at our default starting value. The 300 most similar past games finished 23–25–52.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Mafra at 16%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,751. The goals environment adds 2.8 points to the draw. Cup ties across divisions take 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Santa Clara have gained 73 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,231 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Mafra arrive with 16 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Santa Clara bring a 284-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Mafra vs Santa Clara final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Taça de Portugal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Mafra and Santa Clara team pages or the Taça de Portugal page.