Bitlis Özgüzelderespor vs Kayserispor — Türkiye Kupası: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 30′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, goal:1–0
- 45′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, goal:2–0
- Half-time2 – 0
- 53′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, goal:3–0
- 63′Kayserispor, own goal:3–1Own goal
- 80′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, goal:4–1
- Full-time4 – 1
Match report
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor beat Kayserispor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor won 4-1 against Kayserispor in the 3rd Round of the Türkiye Kupası, building a three-goal lead before the hour and seeing the game out. Erling Moe's Kayserispor were behind from the 30th minute and never found a way back into the tie.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Ali Akkus broke the deadlock on 30 minutes, and Muhammet Arslantaş added a second in the 45th to send the home side in at the break 2-0 ahead. H. Yilmaz made it 3-0 eight minutes after the restart, in the 53rd minute, leaving Kayserispor with a mountain to climb.
Kayserispor pulled one back in the 63rd minute, but it came through an own goal from M. Denizli, who put the ball into his own net to make it 3-1. Any hopes of a revival ended when Enes İlkin struck in the 80th minute to restore the three-goal margin, and the match finished with five goals in total.
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor went into the tie after a 6-0 home win over Silifke Belediyespor. Kayserispor had beaten Konyaspor 2-1 at home in their previous game, but they had lost four of their last five away games, and that travelling record was not improved here.
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor beat Kayserispor 4–1 (half-time 2–0).
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor met Kayserispor in the Türkiye Kupası (3rd Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 29 October 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Team pages: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · Kayserispor · Türkiye Kupası
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Ali Akkus — 1–0
- 45' Goal: Muhammet Arslantaş — 2–0
- 53' Goal: H. Yilmaz — 3–0
- 63' Goal (own goal): M. Denizli — 3–1
- 80' Goal: Enes İlkin — 4–1
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 33%, the draw 30%, Kayserispor 37%. It finished Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 4–1 Kayserispor.
Kayserispor's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Kayserispor sit 73 points higher on our strength rating, 1428 to 1355, and their recent finishing below their chances adds a little, since cold streaks like this have bounced back. The draw sits at 30%, close to the usual 29% for a gap this size, nudged up by that finishing streak.
Why Kayserispor at 37%?
Kayserispor sit 73 points higher on our strength rating — 1428 to 1355. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,116 such games. Kayserispor sit -0.36 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,664 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. The 300 most similar past games finished 39–28–33.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 30% and Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 33%.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.1%. Not enough recent scoring data to set the goals dial — the draw stays at the class table's rate. The bounce-back factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor arrive with 5 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Kayserispor bring a 398-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bitlis Özgüzelderespor vs Kayserispor final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Türkiye Kupası fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Bitlis Özgüzelderespor and Kayserispor team pages or the Türkiye Kupası page.