Eskişehirspor vs Iğdır FK — Türkiye Kupası: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 90+7′Eskişehirspor, goal:1–0
- Full-time1 – 0
Key Stats
Match report
Eskişehirspor snatch late winner against Iğdır FK in Türkiye Kupası
Eskişehirspor edged Iğdır FK 1-0 in the Türkiye Kupası 3rd Round, with Kerem Baykuş scoring deep into stoppage time to settle a contest that had stayed goalless through 90 minutes and beyond.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was level at 0-0 at half-time and remained that way as the clock ran down, with neither side able to find a breakthrough. The decisive moment came in the 90+7 minute, when Baykuş found the net to move the home side ahead for the only time in the game.
Eskişehirspor arrived on the back of a 4-1 home win over Akşehirspor, while Iğdır FK had drawn 3-3 at home with Amed in their previous outing. Iğdır FK's last five games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with ten goals scored and seven conceded.
Baykuş scored the only goal of the match, striking in the 90+7 minute to send Eskişehirspor through.
Eskişehirspor beat Iğdır FK 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Eskişehirspor met Iğdır FK in the Türkiye Kupası (3rd Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 29 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Team pages: Eskişehirspor · Iğdır FK · Türkiye Kupası
Key moments
- 90+7' Goal: Kerem Baykuş — 1–0
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Eskişehirspor 52%, the draw 24%, Iğdır FK 24%. It finished Eskişehirspor 1–0 Iğdır FK.
Eskişehirspor's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — We give Eskişehirspor 52% mainly because they sit 59 points higher on our strength rating, 1392 to 1332, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw starts at 27%, the usual rate for a gap this size, but drops to 24% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Eskişehirspor at 52%?
Eskişehirspor sit 59 points higher on our strength rating — 1392 to 1332. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,101 such games.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Iğdır FK at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,489. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Iğdır FK arrive with 12 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Eskişehirspor bring a 37-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Eskişehirspor vs Iğdır FK final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Türkiye Kupası fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Eskişehirspor and Iğdır FK team pages or the Türkiye Kupası page.