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- 30′Rudes, goal:1–0assist
- 43′Rudes, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 60′Rudes, substitution:off
- 60′Rudes, substitution:off
- 67′Dinamo Zagreb, substitution:off
- 67′Dinamo Zagreb, substitution:off
- 67′Dinamo Zagreb, substitution:off
- 72′Dinamo Zagreb, red card:Violent conduct
- 73′Rudes, substitution:off
- 73′Rudes, substitution:off
- 75′Dinamo Zagreb, substitution:off
- 83′Dinamo Zagreb, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 85′Rudes, substitution:off
- 88′Rudes, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Rudes, yellow card:Foul
- 90+7′Dinamo Zagreb, yellow card:Dissent
- Full-time1 – 0
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Rudes
Dinamo Zagreb
Match report
Rudes stun Dinamo Zagreb with 1-0 win at Stadion Radnik
Rudes beat Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 in HNL Matchday 12 at Stadion Radnik, with Junior Fernándes scoring the only goal of the match. Alen Peternac's side had started the day eighth-bottom of nothing grander than ninth place, 12 points behind second-placed Dinamo Zagreb, and the result closed that gap to nine points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The decisive moment came on 30 minutes. Jurica Poldrugač set up Fernándes, who put the hosts 1-0 ahead, and that remained the score at half-time. Dinamo Zagreb, managed by Mario Kovacevic, dominated the ball for long spells and finished with 26 shots to 13 for Rudes, but could not find a way through.
Their task became harder at 72 minutes when Iker Almena was shown a red card, leaving the visitors with ten men and still chasing a leveller. From that point neither side scored again, and Rudes held on. The win lifted them to eighth on 13 points, while Dinamo Zagreb stayed second on 22 points having played one game fewer.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Rudes a 9% chance of winning. Rudes travel to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in the HNL on Friday 6 November, while Dinamo Zagreb are away to Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November.
Fernándes scored the winner and earned the match's top rating of 7.75. Poldrugač, who provided the assist, was close behind on 7.7.
Dinamo Zagreb had 78% of the possession yet lost, with Rudes managing just 22% of the ball.
Rudes beat Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Rudes met Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadion Radnik. Referee: Ante Culina.
Team pages: Rudes · Dinamo Zagreb · HNL
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Junior Fernándes (assist: Jurica Poldrugač) — 1–0
- 72' Red card: Iker Almena
Starting line-ups
Rudes (3-4-2-1)
Dinamo Zagreb (4-1-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Rudes 9%, the draw 18%, Dinamo Zagreb 73%. It finished Rudes 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb.
Dinamo Zagreb's big strength edge decides it — We give Dinamo Zagreb 73% mainly because our strength rating puts them 459 points higher, 1671 to 1211, a gap far bigger than the usual home advantage Rudes start with. The draw sits at 18%, starting from the usual 19.1% for a gap this size and nudged down because both teams' own recent games average 3.6 goals.
Why Dinamo Zagreb at 73%?
Dinamo Zagreb sit 459 points higher on our strength rating — 1671 to 1211. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,310 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 7–19–74.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Rudes at 9%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,505. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Dinamo Zagreb have averaged 15 percentage points more possession than Rudes in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Dinamo Zagreb won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Rudes. The record is 5 wins for Dinamo Zagreb, 1 draw and 0 wins for Rudes. These were 6 HNL games played between 7 April 2019 and 14 August 2026. Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in the last 9 meetings between the sides (7 wins, 2 draws), a run going back to July 2018. Latest meeting: 14 August 2026 — Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Rudes. In 6,096 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this HNL fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Rudes 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb. Explore more on the Rudes and Dinamo Zagreb team pages or the HNL page.