Gremio vs 26.07.26 21:301 – 1Full Time
Fluminense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Late Diego Caito strike earns Gremio a point against Fluminense
Gremio and Fluminense shared the points in a 1-1 draw in round 20 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that leaves Luis Castro's side still toiling in mid-table while Francisco Zubeldia Luis's Fluminense remain in contention near the top four. The match was goalless at the interval before bursting into life in its final half hour.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Hulk broke the deadlock from the penalty spot in the 65th minute, giving the visitors the lead and appearing set to move Fluminense closer to another away win. But Gremio responded with four minutes remaining when Diego Caito converted from a Jovane Cabral assist to level the score at 1-1, snatching a share of the spoils deep into the game.
Despite having less of the ball, with Fluminense holding 56% possession to Gremio's 44%, the home side were the more threatening in front of goal, registering six shots to three and generating an expected goals figure of 0.49 against Fluminense's 0.10. Gremio picked up both yellow cards shown in the match, while Fluminense collected more corners across the ninety minutes.
Cristian Pavón was rated the leading performer on the pitch with a 7.2 mark, edging out team-mate Marlon on 7.0 despite neither registering a goal or assist.
Gremio out-shot Fluminense six to three and posted a considerably higher expected goals reading of 0.49 to 0.10, despite having less of the ball.
Gremio and Fluminense drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Gremio met Fluminense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 20). Kick-off was Sunday, 26 July 2026, 21:30 UTC at Arena do Grêmio. Referee: Edina Alves Batista. Attendance: 23,728.
Team pages: Gremio · Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 65' Goal (penalty): Hulk — 0–1 · Watch Hulk's goal video (65')
- 89' Goal: Diego Caito (assist: Jovane Cabral) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Gremio (4-1-4-1)
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Fábio
- 13 Guilherme Arana
- 22 Juan Freytes
- 3 Thiago Silva (c)
- 23 Guga
- 35 Hércules
- 8 Martinelli
- 90 Kevin Serna
- 32 Luciano Acosta
- 17 Agustín Canobbio
- 7 Hulk
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Gremio 33%, the draw 32%, Fluminense 35%. It finished Gremio 1–1 Fluminense.
Fluminense's rating edge outweighs Gremio's home ground — Fluminense are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Fluminense the lean. The draw at 32% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Fluminense at 35%?
Fluminense sit 116 points higher on our strength rating — 1658 to 1774. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 12,940 such games. Fluminense hold 7 more possession points (58 to 51 in recent games) across a 116-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,539 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–29–37.
Why only 35%?
Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,371 games vs 44.9% across all 98,326 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 32%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,402. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Gremio are missing 1 regular starter — Marlon — about 32% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Gremio vs Fluminense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Gremio 1–1 Fluminense. Explore more on the Gremio and Fluminense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?
Gremio and Fluminense drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
›Who scored in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Hulk (65') (penalty) for Fluminense; Diego Caito (89') for Gremio.
›Where can I watch Gremio vs Fluminense highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Gremio 1–1 Fluminense are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
Gremio and Fluminense have met 10 times — 6 wins for Gremio, 3 wins for Fluminense and 1 draw.