Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 16′Palmeiras, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- 31′Atletico-MG, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 54′Atletico-MG, goal:0–1
- 59′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 59′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 65′Palmeiras, substitution:Heittor Viniciusoff
- 71′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 71′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 75′Palmeiras, goal:1–1assist
- 76′Atletico-MG, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Atletico-MG, goal:1–2assist
- 78′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 78′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 85′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 90′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 90+3′Atletico-MG, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 2
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Palmeiras
Atletico-MG
Match report
Palmeiras stunned by late Atletico-MG salvo despite dominating Nubank Parque
Palmeiras suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico-MG in round 20 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that halted their charge at the top of the table despite them producing the lion's share of the play at Nubank Parque. The match was goalless at half-time before turning decisively in the second half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Victor Hugo broke the deadlock for the visitors in the 54th minute, converting to put Atletico-MG 1-0 ahead against the run of general territorial control. Palmeiras responded through Felipe Anderson, who levelled in the 75th minute with an assist from Jhon Arias, sparking hope of a home turnaround. That optimism lasted barely two minutes.
Igor Gomes restored Atletico-MG's lead in the 77th minute, finishing off a move set up by A. Minda to make it 2-1 and settle the contest. Palmeiras pushed for an equaliser but could not find a way through again, with the visitors holding on to claim the points and dent the leaders' recent run of good form.
Igor Gomes struck the decisive goal in the 77th minute and finished as the top-rated performer on the pitch with a 7.95 rating.
Palmeiras enjoyed 69% possession and fired 22 shots to Atletico-MG's nine, yet still finished on the losing side.
Atletico-MG won 2–1 away against Palmeiras (half-time 0–0).
Palmeiras met Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 20). Kick-off was Sunday, 26 July 2026, 22:30 UTC at Nubank Parque. Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo.
Team pages: Palmeiras · Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 54' Goal: Victor Hugo — 0–1 · Watch Victor Hugo's goal video (54')
- 75' Goal: Felipe Anderson (assist: Vitor Roque) — 1–1
- 77' Goal: Igor Gomes (assist: Alan Minda) — 1–2 · Watch Igor Gomes's goal video (77')
Starting line-ups
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Carlos Miguel
- 32 Emiliano Martínez
- 15 Gustavo Gómez (c)
- 26 Murilo
- 22 Joaquín Piquerez
- 17 Marlon Freitas
- 8 Andreas Pereira
- 4 Agustín Giay
- 11 Jhon Arias
- 18 Maurício
- 10 Paulinho
Atletico-MG (3-4-2-1)
- 22 Everson (c)
- 13 Lyanco
- 4 Ruan Tressoldi
- 2 Natanael
- 6 Renan Lodi
- 8 Maycon
- 25 Tomás Pérez
- 23 Angelo Preciado
- 11 Bernard
- 30 Victor Hugo
- 9 Mateo Cassierra
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palmeiras 75%, the draw 21%, Atletico-MG 4%. It finished Palmeiras 1–2 Atletico-MG.
Palmeiras' rating gap decides it — Palmeiras are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage plus their unbeaten home run on top make it one-sided for Palmeiras. The draw at 21% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Palmeiras at 75%?
Palmeiras sit 275 points higher on our strength rating — 1938 to 1663. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.1% of 5,873 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,371 games vs 44.9% across all 98,326 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Palmeiras have kept their home record clean this season — 9 home games without defeat. Sides protecting an unbeaten home season won 59.1% of 4,855 such games where the class table expected 56.1% — one of the few streak facts that clears our evidence bar. The 300 most similar past games finished 71–19–10.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 75% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Atletico-MG at 4%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,402. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palmeiras are missing 1 regular starter — Vitor Roque — about 20% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Atletico-MG are missing 1 regular starter — Alan Franco — about 19% of their usual starting-XI weight. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palmeiras 1–2 Atletico-MG. Explore more on the Palmeiras and Atletico-MG team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.