Match report
Gremio come from behind to sink Sao Paulo with late Pavón winner
Gremio recovered from a first-half deficit to beat Sao Paulo 2-1 in a Brasileirão Série A Regular Season - 22 fixture, moving to 25 points from 21 games as Sao Paulo remained on 26 points after 21 played. The result reversed the pattern of recent form, with Gremio having lost their previous two outings and Sao Paulo unbeaten in the league before kickoff but without a win in five.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Sao Paulo struck first deep into first-half stoppage time, Marcos Antônio finishing from a Luciano assist in the 45+2nd minute to make it 0-1 at the break. Gremio responded quickly after the restart, Wallace levelling in the 48th minute with an assist from Carlos Vinícius. The hosts then had to wait until deep into the second half for the decisive moment, Cristian Pavón scoring in the 86th minute to complete the turnaround at 2-1.
Gremio finished with less of the ball, at 48% possession to Sao Paulo's 52%, yet were the more direct side going forward, registering 12 shots to Sao Paulo's 15 but edging the expected-goals count 1.62 to 1.33. Sao Paulo committed the greater share of fouls, 19 to Gremio's 12, as the visitors struggled to contain the hosts' second-half surge.
Pavón scored the winning goal in the 86th minute and was rated the top performer on the pitch with an 8.2, while Wallace also impressed with the equaliser and a 8.0 rating.
Despite having less possession, Gremio outscored their expected-goals total of 1.62 to Sao Paulo's 1.33, reflecting the hosts' greater threat in front of goal.
Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Gremio met Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 22). Kick-off was Saturday, 8 August 2026, 19:00 UTC at Arena do Grêmio. Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento. Attendance: 34,525.
Team pages: Gremio · Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Marcos Antônio (assist: Luciano) — 0–1
- 48' Goal: Wallace (assist: Carlos Vinícius) — 1–1 · Watch Wallace's goal video (48')
- 86' Goal: Cristian Pavón — 2–1 · Watch Cristian Pavón's goal video (86')
Starting line-ups
Gremio (4-1-4-1)
- 1 Weverton
- 23 Marlon
- 82 Wallace
- 6 Gustavo Martins
- 27 Diego Caito
- 19 Erick Noriega
- 77 Jovane Cabral
- 5 Juan Nardoni
- 20 Mathías Villasanti (c)
- 7 Cristian Pavón
- 95 Carlos Vinícius
Sao Paulo (4-2-3-1)
- 23 Rafael
- 18 Wendell
- 54 Osorio Luis
- 5 Robert Arboleda
- 19 Lucas Carvalho
- 19 Lucas Ramon
- 29 Pablo Maia
- 94 Danielzinho
- 11 Ferreira
- 10 Luciano
- 8 Marcos Antônio
- 9 Jonathan Calleri (c)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Gremio 44%, the draw 31%, Sao Paulo 25%. It finished Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo.
Level sides, home ground holds off Sao Paulo's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Gremio the lean. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Gremio in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1668 to 1647. Sides this close won 45.7% of 14,447 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.8%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,384 games vs 44.9% across all 98,839 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Sao Paulo hold 7 more possession points (53 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.4% across 5,522 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Sao Paulo win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,507. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.1 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Gremio are missing 3 regular starters — Francis Amuzu, Marlon, Erick Noriega — about 36% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Sao Paulo are missing 2 regular starters — Damián Bobadilla, Sabino — about 15% of their usual starting-XI weight. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Gremio vs Sao Paulo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo. Explore more on the Gremio and Sao Paulo team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
›Who scored in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
Marcos Antônio (45') for Sao Paulo; Wallace (48') for Gremio; Cristian Pavón (86') for Gremio.
›Where can I watch Gremio vs Sao Paulo highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Sao Paulo?
Gremio and Sao Paulo have met 10 times — 4 wins for Gremio, 6 wins for Sao Paulo and 0 draws.