Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
- 8′Atletico Paranaense, goal:1–0assist
- 27′Atletico-MG, goal:1–1
- 38′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- Half-time1 – 1
- 61′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 61′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 64′Atletico Paranaense, goal disallowed:Goal Disallowed
- 67′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 67′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 68′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 72′Atletico-MG, VAR review:Card upgrade
- 73′Atletico-MG, red card:
- 74′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 76′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 76′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 81′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 81′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 90′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 90+3′Atletico Paranaense, goal:2–1
- 90+7′Atletico-MG, goal:2–2assist
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
Match report
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG draw 2-2 after stoppage-time goals
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG drew 2-2 at Arena da Baixada in Matchday 29 of the Brasileirão Série A. The match produced four goals, two of them in stoppage time, and the visitors, who finished with ten men, took a point from the closing seconds.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kerwin Vargas put the hosts ahead in the 8th minute, converting a chance created by Gilberto. Bernard levelled for Atletico-MG in the 27th, and the sides went in at 1-1 at half-time with the contest finely balanced.
The second half turned when Tomás Pérez was sent off for Atletico-MG in the 73rd minute. Atletico Paranaense pressed the numerical advantage and Kevin Viveros scored in the 90+3 minute to make it 2-1, seemingly sealing victory.
The visitors had one more answer. Lyanco scored in the 90+7 minute, set up by Thiago Borbas, to make it 2-2 and leave Atletico Paranaense third on 50 points, with Atletico-MG seventh on 44.
Gabriel Delfim topped the ratings with 8.28 for Atletico-MG, ahead of Kerwin Vargas, who scored the opener for the hosts and was rated 7.91.
Atletico Paranaense had 31 shots to 15, yet could not turn that advantage into a win.
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG drew 2–2 (half-time 1–1).
Atletico Paranaense met Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Thursday, 8 October 2026, 23:00 UTC at Arena da Baixada. Referee: Ramon Abatti. Attendance: 24,891.
Team pages: Atletico Paranaense · Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Kerwin Vargas (assist: Gilberto) — 1–0
- 27' Goal: Bernard — 1–1
- 73' Red card: Tomás Pérez
- 90+3' Goal: Kevin Viveros — 2–1
- 90+7' Goal: Lyanco (assist: Thiago Borbas) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Gabriel Delfim
- 6 Renan Lodi
- 13 Lyanco
- 40 Vitão
- 2 Natanael
- 39 Mamady Cisse
- 8 Maycon
- 11 Bernard
- 7 Fred
- 28 Tomás Cuello
- 19 Reinier
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico Paranaense 47%, the draw 28%, Atletico-MG 25%. It finished Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MG.
Level sides, home ground swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Atletico Paranaense the lean. The draw at 28% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Atletico Paranaense in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1562 to 1569. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,788 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,464 games vs 44.6% across all 100,992 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 47%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and Atletico-MG at 25%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Atletico-MG win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,112. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Atletico Paranaense are unbeaten in their last 12 home Brasileirão Série A games: 8 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 18 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 19 February 2026 — Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Corinthians. Latest home league result: 20 September 2026 — Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia. Across 13,675 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Out: Gastón Benavídez and Juan Aguirre, important players, and Dantas, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MG. Explore more on the Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.