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play_arrow2 clips- 21′Sao Paulo, yellow card:
- 24′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 44′Cruzeiro, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 46′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 57′Cruzeiro, goal:2–0
- 58′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 63′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 64′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 64′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 68′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 72′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 78′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 85′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 85′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 0
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Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
Match report
Cruzeiro see off Sao Paulo to climb table at Mineirão
Cruzeiro beat Sao Paulo 2-0 at the Estádio Mineirão in a Brasileirão Série A round 29 fixture, moving further clear in the top half of the table. Kaio Jorge broke the deadlock in first-half stoppage time, converting a Matheus Pereira assist to send the home side in 1-0 up at the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The hosts doubled their advantage early in the second half when Zé Lucas struck in the 57th minute, making it 2-0 and effectively settling the contest with over half an hour still to play. Sao Paulo pushed for a way back but could not find the breakthrough as Cruzeiro managed the game out.
Cruzeiro dominated general play with 54 percent of possession and 22 shots to Sao Paulo's 19, with nine of those efforts on target compared to just three for the visitors. Sao Paulo also conceded 20 fouls to Cruzeiro's 12, reflecting the pressure they were under for long periods under referee Wilton Pereira Sampaio.
Despite being on the losing side, Sao Paulo's Artur posted the highest rating of the match at 8.32. Among the winners, Matheus Pereira contributed the assist for Kaio Jorge's opener and rated 7.97, level with teammate William.
Cruzeiro's nine shots on target against Sao Paulo's three underlined how much more clinical the home side were in front of goal.
Cruzeiro beat Sao Paulo 2–0 (half-time 1–0).
Cruzeiro met Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Thursday, 8 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Estádio Mineirão. Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio. Attendance: 18,608.
Team pages: Cruzeiro · Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 44' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: Matheus Pereira) — 1–0 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (44')
- 57' Goal: Zé Lucas — 2–0 · Watch Zé Lucas's goal video (57')
Starting line-ups
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
Sao Paulo (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Cruzeiro 59%, the draw 28%, Sao Paulo 13%. It finished Cruzeiro 2–0 Sao Paulo.
Cruzeiro's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Cruzeiro are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage on top gives Cruzeiro a clear lead. The draw at 28% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Cruzeiro at 59%?
Cruzeiro sit 99 points higher on our strength rating — 1597 to 1498. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,324 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,458 games vs 44.6% across all 100,985 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 56–28–16.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Sao Paulo at 13%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Sao Paulo win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,272. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Sao Paulo are winless in their last 11 away games: 2 draws and 9 defeats. The run began on 18 March 2026. Last recorded away league win: 15 March 2026 — RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao Paulo. Latest recorded away league result: 12 September 2026 — Palmeiras 2–0 Sao Paulo. Across 13,726 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.6%, compared with 25.0% expected from team strength. Out: Fabrício Bruno, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Cruzeiro 2–0 Sao Paulo. Explore more on the Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.