Fluminense vs Santos — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUOL EsporteYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 4′Fluminense, goal:1–0assist
- 25′Santos, yellow card:
- 31′Fluminense, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 0
- 49′Santos, goal:1–1assist
- 54′Santos, goal:1–2assist
- 57′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 57′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 57′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 57′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 72′Santos, substitution:off
- 72′Santos, substitution:off
- 76′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 83′Santos, substitution:off
- 87′Santos, substitution:off
- 87′Santos, substitution:off
- 90+5′Fluminense, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 2
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Key Stats
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Fluminense
Santos
Match report
Santos come from behind to beat Fluminense 2-1 at the Maracanã
Santos won 2-1 at Fluminense in Matchday 31 of the Brasileirão Série A, overturning a first-half deficit with two goals in the opening minutes of the second half at the Estádio do Maracanã.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Fluminense had the lead inside four minutes, Rodrigo Castillo scoring from Igor Rabello's assist, and they took that 1-0 advantage into the interval. Santos levelled in the 49th minute, when Gabriel Barbosa scored from Rodinei's assist. Five minutes later, Philippe Coutinho put the visitors in front, converting a pass from Gabriel Bontempo.
Santos were the more threatening side across the match, with 17 shots to 8 and five on target to two. Possession was split 50 per cent each, and neither side had a player sent off. The result lifted Santos from ninth to eighth on 45 points, six behind Fluminense, who dropped from fourth to fifth on 51.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Santos a 15% chance of winning. Fluminense next travel to Chapecoense-sc in the Brasileirão Série A on Saturday, while Santos host Bahia in the same competition.
Gabriel Barbosa levelled the match four minutes into the second half and earned the highest rating of any player, 8.27. Gabriel Bontempo's assist for Coutinho's winner brought him a rating of 7.45.
Santos managed 17 shots to Fluminense's 8, a gap that reflected their control once the second half began.
Santos won 2–1 away against Fluminense (half-time 1–0).
Fluminense met Santos in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 31). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estádio do Maracanã. Referee: Ramon Abatti. Attendance: 27,697.
Team pages: Fluminense · Santos · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 4' Goal: Rodrigo Castillo (assist: Igor Rabello) — 1–0 · Watch Rodrigo Castillo's goal video (4')
- 49' Goal: Gabriel Barbosa (assist: Rodinei) — 1–1 · Watch Gabriel Barbosa's goal video (49')
- 54' Goal: Philippe Coutinho (assist: Gabriel Bontempo) — 1–2 · Watch Philippe Coutinho's goal video (54')
Starting line-ups
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fluminense 61%, the draw 24%, Santos 15%. It finished Fluminense 1–2 Santos.
Stronger rating puts Fluminense clearly ahead — We give Fluminense 61% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1603 to 1557, and they usually see more of the ball, 57 to 52 in possession. The draw sits at 24%, down from a usual 27% for a gap this size, mostly because finishing streaks pull it lower despite this competition's higher draw rate.
Why Fluminense at 61%?
Fluminense sit 46 points higher on our strength rating — 1603 to 1557. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.3% of 10,414 such games. Fluminense hold 5 more possession points (57 to 52 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,155 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,483 games vs 44.6% across all 101,389 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 61%?
Fluminense scored +0.39 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,491 games, vs 27.7% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,238. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Fluminense are unbeaten in their last 9 home Brasileirão Série A games: 6 wins and 3 draws. The run began on 26 April 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 12 April 2026 — Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo. Latest home league result: 9 October 2026 — Fluminense 4–0 Coritiba. Across 13,735 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Out: Willian Arão, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fluminense vs Santos final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Rodrigo Castillo's goal against Santos (4').
- Watch Gabriel Barbosa's goal against Fluminense (49').
- Watch Philippe Coutinho's goal against Fluminense (54').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Fluminense 1–2 Santos. Explore more on the Fluminense and Santos team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.