Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 6′Palmeiras, goal:0–1assist
- 9′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 10′Palmeiras, goal:0–2
- 22′Palmeiras, yellow card:
- 35′Palmeiras, yellow card:
- 43′Palmeiras, second yellow card:
- Half-time0 – 2
- 46′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 46′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 46′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 52′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 57′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 65′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 67′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 72′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 72′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 87′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 90′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 2
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Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
Match report
Palmeiras see off Atletico Paranaense despite late red card
Palmeiras won 2-0 at Arena da Baixada in Brasileirão Série A on Matchday 31, scoring twice inside the opening ten minutes and holding firm for the rest of the evening. The result lifted Abel Ferreira's side from second to first in the table, on 66 points and 13 clear of third-placed Atletico Paranaense.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The visitors struck in the sixth minute, when Maurício converted a delivery from José López to make it 1-0. Four minutes later Joaquín Piquerez added a second, and Atletico Paranaense, managed by Odair Hellmann, were chasing the game almost from the start.
Palmeiras were reduced to ten men in the 43rd minute, when Andreas Pereira was sent off with the score at 0-2. Neither side scored again, despite Atletico Paranaense dominating the ball with 65% possession and forcing 16 corners to Palmeiras' one. The result left Palmeiras unbeaten in 10 games.
Both sides are back in Brasileirão Série A action on Saturday 24 October: Palmeiras host RB Bragantino, while Atletico Paranaense travel to face Vitoria.
Carlos Miguel earned the highest rating of any player, 8.19, in a Palmeiras defence that protected its two-goal lead through the second half. Alexander Barboza (7.66) and Murilo (7.61) followed him among the team's top performers.
Atletico Paranaense had 24 shots to Palmeiras' six, yet finished with nothing to show for that volume.
Palmeiras won 2–0 away against Atletico Paranaense (half-time 0–2).
Atletico Paranaense met Palmeiras in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 31). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 22:30 UTC at Arena da Baixada. Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli. Attendance: 35,852.
Team pages: Atletico Paranaense · Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Maurício (assist: José López) — 0–1
- 10' Goal: Joaquín Piquerez — 0–2
Starting line-ups
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Mycael
- 14 Luiz Gustavo
- 33 Juan Aguirre
- 4 Arthur Dias
- 7 Stiven Mendoza
- 5 Felipinho
- 16 Jádson
- 12 Gilberto
- 8 João Cruz
- 21 Leozinho
- 9 Kevin Viveros
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico Paranaense 37%, the draw 27%, Palmeiras 36%. It finished Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras.
Palmeiras stronger, but home edge evens it up — Palmeiras sit 139 points higher on our strength rating, but Atletico Paranaense's usual home advantage, boosted because home sides do especially well in the Brasileirão Série A, pulls this back to 37% against 36%. The draw starts near 28% for a gap this size, and we give it 27% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals, only partly offset by the league's usual draw rate.
Why Atletico Paranaense at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Palmeiras sit 139 points higher on our strength rating — 1710 to 1571. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,846 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,479 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 37%?
Because Palmeiras are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 27% and Palmeiras at 36%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Atletico Paranaense scored +0.56 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. With 8 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Atletico Paranaense are 4 points clear of 5th, Palmeiras 1 point off top spot. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (3572 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras. Explore more on the Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.