Atletico-MG vs Coritiba — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 46′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 60′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 61′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 62′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 62′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 62′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 62′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 74′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 78′Atletico-MG, goal:1–0assist
- 79′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 79′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 90+4′Coritiba, yellow card:
- 90+4′Coritiba, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 0
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Atletico-MG
Coritiba
Match report
Atletico-MG edge Coritiba with late Igor Gomes goal
Atletico-MG beat Coritiba 1-0 at Arena MRV in a Brasileirão Série A matchday 31 fixture, a single goal separating the sides after a goalless first half. Igor Gomes struck in the 78th minute, converting after a pass from Natanael, to settle a contest the hosts had controlled for long periods.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Atletico-MG held 58% of possession and outshot their visitors 22 to 13, with 10 of those efforts on target against three for Coritiba. They also won 10 corners to five, yet the breakthrough did not arrive until 12 minutes from time, with the score still 0-0 at the interval.
Coritiba, managed by Fernando Seabra, posed little threat after the break and are now without a win in 6 games. The result lifted Atletico-MG from seventh to fifth, on 50 points, while Coritiba stayed 12th on 39, 11 points behind the hosts. Both sides play on Monday 26 October: Atletico-MG are away to Flamengo, and Coritiba host Gremio, both in the Série A.
Igor Gomes scored the only goal of the match, finishing from Natanael's assist in the 78th minute, and earned a rating of 8.29. Coritiba's Pedro Luccas carried the highest rating on the pitch at 8.7 despite the defeat.
Atletico-MG put 10 of their 22 shots on target, while Coritiba managed only three from their 13 attempts.
Atletico-MG beat Coritiba 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Atletico-MG met Coritiba in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 31). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC at MRV Arena. Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda. Attendance: 25,085.
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 78' Goal: Igor Gomes (assist: Natanael) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
Coritiba (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Pedro Morisco
- 26 Bruno Melo
- 55 Jacy
- 23 Tiago Cóser
- 14 Fabricio Bustos
- 19 Sebastián Gómez
- 21 Thiago Santos
- 7 Joaquín Lavega
- 10 Josué
- 32 Pedro Rocha
- 18 Paulo Roberto
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico-MG 61%, the draw 26%, Coritiba 13%. It finished Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba.
Atletico-MG's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give Atletico-MG 61% mainly because our strength rating has them 144 points clear of Coritiba, 1581 to 1437, and home sides in the Brasileirão Série A generally do better than the global norm. The draw sits at 26%, starting from about 25% for a gap this size, nudged up by the competition's usual draw rate and slightly down by both teams' recent games averaging 2.9 goals.
Why Atletico-MG at 61%?
Atletico-MG sit 144 points higher on our strength rating — 1581 to 1437. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,358 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,479 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–22–15.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Coritiba at 13%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,198. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Atletico-MG have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Coritiba in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last 9 home Brasileirão Série A games: 6 wins and 3 draws. The run began on 10 May 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 26 April 2026 — Atletico-MG 0–4 Flamengo. Latest home league result: 11 October 2026 — Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos. Across 13,724 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atletico-MG vs Coritiba final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba. Explore more on the Atletico-MG and Coritiba team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.