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- 6′Bahia, goal:1–0assist
- 10′Bahia, goal:2–0assist
- 43′Sao Paulo, goal:2–1assist
- 45+5′Sao Paulo, goal:2–2assist
- Half-time2 – 2
- 56′Bahia, substitution:off
- 56′Bahia, substitution:off
- 56′Bahia, substitution:off
- 69′Bahia, yellow card:
- 70′Sao Paulo, yellow card:
- 71′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 74′Bahia, substitution:off
- 81′Bahia, goal:3–2assist
- 82′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 82′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 82′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 83′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 88′Bahia, substitution:off
- 90+1′Sao Paulo, yellow card:
- 90+2′Sao Paulo, yellow card:
- 90+6′Bahia, yellow card:
- Full-time3 – 2
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Bahia
Sao Paulo
Match report
Bahia edge five-goal thriller against Sao Paulo at Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3-2 in a five-goal Brasileirão Série A match on Matchday 33 at Arena Fonte Nova. Marcos Victor struck the winner in the 81st minute, set up by Erick, after the visitors had pulled level with a goal in first-half stoppage time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The hosts made a fast start. Rodrigo Nestor scored in the sixth minute from Jean Lucas's assist, and Erick Pulga doubled the lead in the 10th, set up by Marcos Victor. Sao Paulo did not get back into the game until just before the break.
Lucas Moura reduced the deficit in the 43rd minute, with Jonathan Calleri providing the assist. Calleri was involved again in the 45+5 minute, setting up Damián Bobadilla to make it 2-2 and send the sides in level at the interval. The second half stayed tight until Marcos Victor's late finish.
The result lifted Bahia from seventh to sixth, on 53 points, while Sao Paulo stayed 10th on 43. Bahia travel to Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão Série A next, and Sao Paulo host Corinthians in the same competition.
Marcos Victor was the match-winner, scoring in the 81st minute after earlier providing the assist for Erick Pulga's goal. His rating of 8.51 was the highest of any player.
Sao Paulo won 11 corners to Bahia's 7, but it was the hosts who finished the stronger of the two sides on the scoreboard.
Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3–2 (half-time 2–2).
Bahia met Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Thursday, 29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Arena Fonte Nova. Referee: Anderson Daronco. Attendance: 21,492.
Team pages: Bahia · Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Rodrigo Nestor (assist: Jean Lucas) — 1–0
- 10' Goal: Erick Pulga (assist: Marcos Victor) — 2–0
- 43' Goal: Lucas Moura (assist: Jonathan Calleri) — 2–1
- 45+5' Goal: Damián Bobadilla (assist: Jonathan Calleri) — 2–2
- 81' Goal: Marcos Victor (assist: Erick) — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Bahia (5-3-2)
Sao Paulo (3-4-2-1)
- 23 Rafael
- 35 Sabino
- 5 Robert Arboleda
- 28 Newton
- 18 Wendell
- 29 Pablo Maia
- 16 Damián Bobadilla
- 32 Pedro Lima
- 7 Lucas Moura
- 10 Luciano
- 9 Jonathan Calleri
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bahia 43%, the draw 32%, Sao Paulo 25%. It finished Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo.
Home advantage gives Bahia a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Bahia's home advantage, which runs strong in Brasileirão Série A, puts them in front at 43%, though Sao Paulo's cold finishing streak, the kind that has bounced back, pulls the other way. The draw sits at 32%, up from a usual 27% for sides this level, nudged higher by the competition's draw rate, typical scoring and that finishing streak.
Why Bahia in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1535 to 1510. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,542 home games (draw 27.4%, visitors 26.6%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,498 games vs 44.6% across all 108,079 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Sao Paulo sit -0.31 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.9% of 1,659 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Sao Paulo win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,336. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bahia sit -0.50 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. In our recorded league results, Sao Paulo are winless in their last 13 away games: 3 draws and 10 defeats. The run began on 18 March 2026. Last recorded away league win: 15 March 2026 — RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao Paulo. Latest recorded away league result: 24 October 2026 — Mirassol 1–1 Sao Paulo. Across 14,221 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.5%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bahia vs Sao Paulo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo. Explore more on the Bahia and Sao Paulo team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.