Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
- 23′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 29′Gremio, yellow card:
- 37′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 39′Gremio, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 46′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 52′Gremio, goal:2–0assist
- 62′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 66′Gremio, yellow card:
- 67′Gremio, substitution:off
- 67′Gremio, substitution:off
- 68′Gremio, substitution:off
- 69′Gremio, yellow card:
- 79′Gremio, substitution:off
- 80′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 87′Gremio, substitution:off
- 88′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 89′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 90+2′Gremio, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 0
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Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Match report
Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 at the Arena do Grêmio
Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 at the Arena do Grêmio on Brasileirão Série A Matchday 33, a result that moved them out of the lower reaches of the table. Marlon broke the deadlock in the 39th minute to give the home side a 1-0 half-time lead, and Fabián Balbuena added a second seven minutes after the restart, in the 52nd minute.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Atletico Paranaense dominated the ball, holding 70% of possession to Gremio's 30%, and won eight corners to six. Yet Gremio's 19 shots to 16 and five efforts on target to four showed how effectively they used their limited time in possession. Weverton helped keep the visitors out, and the expected goals figures of 1.31 to 1.08 favoured the hosts.
The three points lifted Gremio from 17th to 15th, on 37 points after 33 games. Atletico Paranaense stayed on 54 points but slipped from fourth to fifth. Gremio, who went into the game having drawn three of their last five, next host Atletico-MG in the Copa Do Brasil on Sunday 1 November, while Atletico Paranaense entertain Vasco DA Gama in the league on Wednesday 4 November.
Marlon scored the opening goal in the 39th minute and earned a rating of 8.00. Luiz Gustavo of the beaten side had the highest rating of the match at 8.18, while Weverton was rated 7.78.
Atletico Paranaense had 70% of possession but still lost, with Gremio taking 19 shots to their 16.
Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2–0 (half-time 1–0).
Gremio met Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Friday, 30 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Arena do Grêmio. Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano. Attendance: 34,769.
Team pages: Gremio · Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 39' Goal: Marlon — 1–0
- 52' Goal: Fabián Balbuena (assist: Marlon) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
Gremio (3-4-3)
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Mycael
- 37 Lucas Esquivel
- 33 Juan Aguirre
- 4 Arthur Dias
- 6 Léo Derik
- 14 Luiz Gustavo (c)
- 27 Juan Portilla
- 7 Stiven Mendoza
- 8 João Cruz
- 21 Leozinho
- 9 Kevin Viveros
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Gremio 46%, the draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 28%. It finished Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Home edge in Brasileirão Série A lifts Gremio — Our strength rating has Atletico Paranaense 65 points higher, but Gremio's home advantage, strong across Brasileirão Série A, plus Atletico's recent scoring above their chances, a streak that tends to cool, gives Gremio 46%. The draw starts at 29% for a gap this size and falls to 26%, lowered by high-scoring recent games and that finishing streak.
Why Gremio at 46%?
Home ground, against the rating. Atletico Paranaense sit 65 points higher on our strength rating — 1556 to 1490. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,116 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,503 games vs 44.6% across all 108,147 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Atletico Paranaense scored +0.63 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.6% of 1,647 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because Atletico Paranaense are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 26% and Atletico Paranaense at 28%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,489. The goals environment takes 2.6 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
With 6 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Gremio are 1 point above the drop, Atletico Paranaense level on points with 5th. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4119 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. Out: Cristian Pavón and Diego Caito, important players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense. Explore more on the Gremio and Atletico Paranaense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.