Vitoria vs Fluminense — Brasileirão Série A: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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VitoriaFluminenseVitoriaFluminenseMatch preview
Vitoria host fourth-placed Fluminense at Barradao on Brasileirão matchday 34
Vitoria welcome Fluminense to Barradao on matchday 34 of the Brasileirão Série A, with the two sides separated by 11 places and 16 points. Fluminense, managed by Marcão, sit fourth on 54 points after 33 games, the higher-placed side. Vitoria, under Ventura Jair, are 15th on 38 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Vitoria arrive on the back of a 2-0 defeat away to Coritiba, their last game. Across their last five they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring seven and conceding six. Fluminense have won two and lost three of their last five, scoring eight and conceding six, and beat Internacional 2-1 at home last time out.
At home, Vitoria have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five home games, keeping two clean sheets. Fluminense's last five away games brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with ten goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Vitoria won 2, Fluminense won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria on 9 May 2026. Vitoria's latest win in this sample was Vitoria 2–1 Fluminense on 26 October 2024. Fluminense's latest win in this sample was Vitoria 0–1 Fluminense on 20 September 2025.
Team news as of 6 November: Vitoria have Ramon, Emanuel Brítez (suspended), Mateusinho, Camutanga, Fabiano and 4 others listed as out. Fluminense have Martinelli, Ignacio (suspended), John Kennedy, Julián Millán, Alisson and 1 other listed as out.
Vitoria have won one of their last five and lost their latest game 2-0 at Coritiba, while Fluminense have won two of five and beat Internacional 2-1 last time out.
Both sides have faced Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba recently: Vitoria beat Chapecoense-sc 4-0 and lost 2-0 at Coritiba, while Fluminense beat Coritiba 4-0 and lost 2-1 at Chapecoense-sc.
Vitoria meet Fluminense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 23:00 UTC at Estádio Manoel Barradas. Referee: Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima.
Team pages: Vitoria · Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A
Sirius · Why these numbers
Vitoria 37% · Draw 28% · Fluminense 35%
Home edge offsets Fluminense's stronger rating — Our strength rating has Fluminense 131 points higher, but Vitoria's usual home advantage, plus home sides doing especially well across the Brasileirão Série A, edges Vitoria narrowly in front at 37% to 35%. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up by the league's draw rate and slightly down by typical scoring.
Why Vitoria at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Fluminense sit 131 points higher on our strength rating — 1578 to 1448. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,517 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 37%?
Because Fluminense are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 28% and Fluminense at 35%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Fluminense have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Vitoria in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Fluminense scored +0.60 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Vitoria vs Fluminense, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Brasileirão Série A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Vitoria and Fluminense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.