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play_arrow1 clip- 20′Flamengo, goal:1–0assist
- 28′Flamengo, goal:2–0assist
- 45+2′Flamengo, goal:3–0
- Half-time3 – 0
- 46′Gremio, substitution:off
- 46′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 46′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 46′Gremio, substitution:off
- 46′Gremio, substitution:off
- 58′Gremio, yellow card:
- 69′Gremio, goal:3–1
- 75′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 75′Gremio, substitution:off
- 86′Gremio, substitution:off
- 86′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 89′Gremio, yellow card:
- 90+2′Flamengo, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 1
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Flamengo
Gremio
Match report
Flamengo beat Gremio 3-1 at the Maracanã to extend lead at the top
Flamengo beat Gremio 3-1 at the Estádio do Maracanã in Matchday 34 of the Brasileirão Série A, with all three of their goals arriving before half-time. The result stretched their winning run to five games and left them unbeaten in 11.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Samuel Lino opened the scoring in the 20th minute, set up by Jorge Carrascal, who supplied the pass for Pedro to make it 2-0 eight minutes later. Pedro added a third in first-half stoppage time, at 45+2, to leave the home side 3-0 up at the interval.
Gremio responded after the break and pulled one back through Francis Amuzu in the 69th minute, but never seriously threatened to close the gap further. Flamengo had 17 shots to 7 and 8 on target to 4, with an expected goals figure of 2.37 against 0.31.
The three points took Flamengo to 76 from 34 games, still first, while Gremio stayed 17th on 37 points. Gremio travel to Atletico-MG in the Copa Do Brasil on Saturday 7 November, and Flamengo host Atletico Paranaense in the league on Wednesday 18 November.
Pedro scored twice, in the 28th minute and again in first-half stoppage time, and earned the match's highest rating at 8.91. Carrascal laid on both of the opening two goals.
Flamengo had 17 shots to Gremio's 7, a gap that reflected their control of the contest.
Flamengo beat Gremio 3–1 (half-time 3–0).
Flamengo met Gremio in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off was Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 22:30 UTC at Estádio do Maracanã. Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli. Attendance: 67,164.
Team pages: Flamengo · Gremio · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 20' Goal: Samuel Lino (assist: Jorge Carrascal) — 1–0
- 28' Goal: Pedro (assist: Jorge Carrascal) — 2–0 · Watch Pedro's goal video (28')
- 45+2' Goal: Pedro — 3–0
- 69' Goal: Francis Amuzu — 3–1
Starting line-ups
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
Gremio (4-1-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Flamengo 76%, the draw 20%, Gremio 4%. It finished Flamengo 3–1 Gremio.
Flamengo's strength gap makes this one-sided — We give Flamengo 76% mainly because our strength rating puts them 228 points clear of Gremio, 1754 to 1525, and home sides in the Brasileirão Série A tend to do better than the global norm. The draw starts near 18%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and rises to 20% with the competition's typical draw rate and recent scoring.
Why Flamengo at 76%?
Flamengo sit 228 points higher on our strength rating — 1754 to 1525. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,092 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,511 games vs 44.6% across all 108,387 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–17–8.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 76% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 20% and Gremio at 4%.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,386. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Flamengo have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Gremio in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. With 5 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Flamengo are 3 points clear of 2nd, Gremio 1 point above the drop. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4609 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Flamengo vs Gremio final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Flamengo 3–1 Gremio. Explore more on the Flamengo and Gremio team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.