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play_arrow3 clips- 5′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 19′Bahia, yellow card:
- 32′Bahia, goal:0–1assist
- 45+2′Cruzeiro, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 57′Bahia, substitution:off
- 61′Cruzeiro, VAR review:Penalty confirmed
- 63′Cruzeiro, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 69′Cruzeiro, goal:2–1assist
- 69′Bahia, yellow card:
- 70′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 76′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 82′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 82′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 82′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 83′Bahia, substitution:off
- 86′Cruzeiro, goal:3–1assist
- 87′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 90+5′Bahia, goal:3–2assist
- 90+8′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- Full-time3 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Cruzeiro
Bahia
Match report
Cruzeiro come from behind to beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio Mineirão
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio Mineirão in a Brasileirão Série A matchday 34 fixture, fighting back from a goal down and then surviving a stoppage-time scare. The win, Cruzeiro's fourth in a row, lifted them to 60 points and kept them third, seven clear of sixth-placed Bahia on 53.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Bahia took the lead in the 32nd minute when Cristian Olivera finished a move created by Rodrigo Nestor. Cruzeiro levelled in first-half stoppage time, Kaio Jorge converting Keny Arroyo's assist in the 45+2 minute to make it 1-1 at the break.
Bruno Rodrigues put the hosts ahead in the 69th minute, again from an Arroyo pass, and Kaio Jorge struck again in the 86th, set up by Lucas Romero, to make it 3-1. Alejo Véliz pulled one back for Bahia in the 90+5 minute, Luciano Juba providing the assist, but there was no time left for an equaliser.
Cruzeiro host Palmeiras in Brasileirão Série A on Wednesday 18 November, while Bahia travel to face Gremio in the same competition.
Keny Arroyo provided two assists, for Kaio Jorge's first goal and for Bruno Rodrigues's winner, and earned the top rating of 8.35. Kaio Jorge added two goals of his own.
Cruzeiro had 22 shots to Bahia's 13, even though Bahia held 56 per cent of the possession.
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
Cruzeiro met Bahia in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off was Friday, 6 November 2026, 00:30 UTC at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein.
Team pages: Cruzeiro · Bahia · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Cristian Olivera (assist: Rodrigo Nestor) — 0–1
- 45+2' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: Keny Arroyo) — 1–1 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (45+2')
- 69' Goal: Bruno Rodrigues (assist: Keny Arroyo) — 2–1 · Watch Bruno Rodrigues's goal video (69')
- 86' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: Lucas Romero) — 3–1 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (86')
- 90+5' Goal: Alejo Véliz (assist: Luciano Juba) — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
- 81 Otávio Costa
- 27 Gabriel Rojas
- 15 Fabrício Bruno
- 34 Jonathan Jesus
- 23 Fágner
- 5 Zé Lucas
- 29 Lucas Romero (c)
- 8 Gerson
- 9 Bruno Rodrigues
- 99 Keny Arroyo
- 19 Kaio Jorge
Bahia (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Ronaldo
- 46 Luciano Juba
- 4 Kanu
- 33 David Duarte
- 44 Marcos Victor
- 5 Nicolás Acevedo
- 14 Erick
- 11 Rodrigo Nestor
- 10 Éverton Ribeiro (c)
- 99 Cristian Olivera
- 9 Alejo Véliz
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Cruzeiro 50%, the draw 27%, Bahia 23%. It finished Cruzeiro 3–2 Bahia.
Cruzeiro's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — We give Cruzeiro 50% because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1619 to 1544, though Bahia's recent finishing pulls the other way, as cold streaks like theirs have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 27%, close to its usual 27% starting point, with high-scoring recent games lowering it and the competition's usual draw rate nudging it back up.
Why Cruzeiro at 50%?
Cruzeiro sit 76 points higher on our strength rating — 1619 to 1544. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,515 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 50%?
Bahia sit -0.37 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,693 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bahia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,729. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
With 5 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Cruzeiro are 3 points clear of 5th, Bahia 1 point off the top four. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4614 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. Out: Matheus Pereira, a star player, and William, a rotation player. Doubtful: João Marcelo, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Cruzeiro vs Bahia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Bahia (45+2').
- Watch Bruno Rodrigues's goal against Bahia (69').
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Bahia (86').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Cruzeiro 3–2 Bahia. Explore more on the Cruzeiro and Bahia team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.