Nottingham Forest vs Leeds — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
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play_arrow1 clip- 18′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- 32′Leeds, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 52′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 66′Leeds, substitution:off
- 74′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 74′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 82′Leeds, substitution:off
- 88′Leeds, goal:0–1
- 90+3′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Nottingham Forest
Leeds
Match report
Stach strikes late as Leeds edge Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest opened their Premier League campaign with a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Leeds at the City Ground, a result settled deep into the second half. The contest remained goalless at the interval and stayed tight for long spells before Leeds found the breakthrough.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Anton Stach proved the difference in the 88th minute, converting to put Leeds ahead and leaving Forest with no time to respond. The goal completed a frustrating afternoon for Oliver Glasner's side, who began the new season on nought points despite arriving off a run of results that had been mixed at best.
Forest edged possession and had the corner count level, but Leeds matched them shot for shot and were the more clinical side when it mattered. James Trafford was called upon at times but held firm, while at the other end Leeds' discipline behind the ball helped preserve the lead through the closing stages. Robert Jones took charge of a match that produced three yellow cards in total.
James Justin was rated the top performer on the pitch with a 7.3 mark, playing a steady part in a Leeds defence that held out for the win, while Ethan Ampadu and James Trafford were also among the highest rated.
Forest edged the ball for spells, holding 52% possession to Leeds' 48%, yet found no way past their opponents' defence.
Leeds won 1–0 away against Nottingham Forest (half-time 0–0).
Nottingham Forest met Leeds in the Premier League (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at City Ground. Referee: Robert Jones.
Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Leeds · Premier League
Key moments
- 88' Goal: Anton Stach — 0–1 · Watch Anton Stach's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
- 26 Matz Sels
- 5 Murillo
- 31 Nikola Milenković
- 23 Jair
- 3 Neco Williams
- 6 Ibrahim Sangaré
- 24 James McAtee
- 34 Ola Aina
- 10 Morgan Gibbs-White (c)
- 14 Dan Ndoye
- 11 Igor Jesus
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nottingham Forest 48%, the draw 28%, Leeds 24%. It finished Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds.
Nottingham Forest's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Nottingham Forest are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Nottingham Forest's 48%. The draw at 28% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Nottingham Forest at 48%?
Nottingham Forest sit 92 points higher on our strength rating — 1907 to 1815. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.6% of 10,369 such games.
Why only 48%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Nottingham Forest's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. Nottingham Forest scored +0.44 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,463 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Leeds win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,834. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Nottingham Forest have won the last 4 home meetings with Leeds. Streaks like this look decisive, but sides on a 3+ home run in a fixture won 58.8% of 4,870 such games vs 58.4% class-expected — the strength that built the streak is already in the rating.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nottingham Forest vs Leeds final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds. Explore more on the Nottingham Forest and Leeds team pages or the Premier League page.