Tottenham vs 19.09.26 11:302 – 3Full Time
Aston Villa — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Aston Villa hold on as Tottenham fightback falls short
Aston Villa won 3-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a Premier League Regular Season - 5 fixture that swung dramatically in its closing stages. Unai Emery's side led at the break and looked to have the match under control before a frantic finish saw Tottenham claw back two goals in the last ten minutes, though it proved too little too late.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Johan Manzambi broke the deadlock deep into first-half stoppage time, converting an assist from Boubacar Kamara to make it 1-0 at the interval. Villa doubled their lead in the second half when Nicolas Jackson finished off a Manzambi assist in the 67th minute, and Emiliano Buendía added a third in the 79th minute after being set up by John McGinn, putting the visitors 3-0 ahead and seemingly out of sight.
Tottenham responded through Conor Gallagher, who pulled one back in the 86th minute with Mohammed Kudus providing the assist. The hosts pushed for a leveller and Jan van Hecke headed home an Andrew Robertson delivery deep into added time, in the 90+8th minute, to make it 3-2, but Villa saw out the remaining moments to secure the win despite Tottenham's late surge.
Manzambi scored Villa's opener and turned provider for Jackson's second, finishing with a goal and an assist to back up his 8.8 rating.
Tottenham dominated territory with 64% of possession but could not translate that control into victory.
Aston Villa won 3–2 away against Tottenham (half-time 0–1).
Tottenham met Aston Villa in the Premier League (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Referee: Samuel Barrott.
Team pages: Tottenham · Aston Villa · Premier League
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Johan Manzambi (assist: Boubacar Kamara) — 0–1 · Watch Johan Manzambi's goal video (45')
- 67' Goal: Nicolas Jackson (assist: Johan Manzambi) — 0–2 · Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal video (67')
- 79' Goal: Emiliano Buendía (assist: John McGinn) — 0–3 · Watch Emiliano Buendía's goal video (79')
- 86' Goal: Conor Gallagher (assist: Mohammed Kudus) — 1–3 · Watch Conor Gallagher's goal video (86')
- 90' Goal: Jan Paul van Hecke (assist: Andy Robertson) — 2–3 · Watch Jan Paul van Hecke's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Tottenham (4-2-3-1)
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Tottenham 32%, the draw 30%, Aston Villa 38%. It finished Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa.
Aston Villa's rating edge outweighs Tottenham's home ground — Aston Villa are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Aston Villa the lean. The draw at 30% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Aston Villa at 38%?
Aston Villa sit 108 points higher on our strength rating — 1841 to 1949. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,189 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Tottenham's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–23–40.
Why only 38%?
Tottenham hold 10 more possession points (57 to 47 in recent games) across a 108-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,693 such games where the class table expected 41.2%.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,116. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Aston Villa scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,878 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Tottenham have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Tottenham vs Aston Villa final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Johan Manzambi's goal against Tottenham (45').
- Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal against Tottenham (67').
- Watch Emiliano Buendía's goal against Tottenham (79').
- Watch Conor Gallagher's goal against Aston Villa (86').
- Watch Jan Paul van Hecke's goal against Aston Villa (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa. Explore more on the Tottenham and Aston Villa team pages or the Premier League page.