Manchester City vs 17.10.26 14:003 – 2Full Time
Ipswich — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Manchester City vs Ipswich — the facts
Manchester City beat Ipswich 3–2 (half-time 2–1).
Manchester City met Ipswich in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Etihad Stadium. Referee: Farai Hallam. Attendance: 60,817.
Team pages: Manchester City · Ipswich · Premier League
Key moments
- 19' Goal: Phil Foden (assist: Jérémy Doku) — 1–0 · Watch Phil Foden's goal video (19')
- 21' Goal: Daizen Maeda (assist: Abdoul Ouattara) — 1–1 · Watch Daizen Maeda's goal video (21')
- 34' Goal: Erling Haaland (assist: Mateo Kovačić) — 2–1 · Watch Erling Haaland's goal video (34')
- 69' Goal: Erling Haaland (assist: Iliman Ndiaye) — 3–1 · Watch Erling Haaland's goal video (69')
- 90' Goal (penalty): Zian Flemming — 3–2 · Watch Zian Flemming's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Manchester City (4-2-3-1)
Ipswich (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Manchester City 84%, the draw 11%, Ipswich 5%. It finished Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich.
A 430-point rating gap puts Manchester City far ahead — We give Manchester City 84% mainly because our strength rating has them 430 points higher, 2007 to 1578, and the usual home advantage adds a little more. The draw sits at 11%, starting from the usual 12% for a gap this size and nudged down because both sides' own recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why Manchester City at 84%?
Manchester City sit 430 points higher on our strength rating — 2007 to 1578. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,567 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 85–11–4.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 84% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 11% and Ipswich at 5%.
Why is the draw only 11%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 11.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 1.0 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Manchester City have averaged 16 percentage points more possession than Ipswich in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Ipswich are newly promoted — game 7 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Manchester City vs Ipswich final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Phil Foden's goal against Ipswich (19').
- Watch Daizen Maeda's goal against Manchester City (21').
- Watch Erling Haaland's goal against Ipswich (34').
- Watch Erling Haaland's goal against Ipswich (69').
- Watch Zian Flemming's goal against Manchester City (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich. Explore more on the Manchester City and Ipswich team pages or the Premier League page.