Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBrentford Football ClubYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 30′Brentford, own goal:1–0Own goal
- 36′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 46′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 62′Brentford, substitution:off
- 62′Brentford, substitution:off
- 64′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:
- 65′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 65′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 68′Brentford, yellow card:
- 72′Brentford, substitution:off
- 76′Brentford, goal:2–0assist
- 83′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:
- 84′Brentford, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 0
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Assist
Videos
Player Ratings
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
Match report
Brentford beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 despite being outshot
Brentford beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at the Gtech Community Stadium in Matchweek 9 of the Premier League, ending a run of four games without a win. The home side led at half-time and sealed the points with a second goal in the 76th minute.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The opener arrived in the 30th minute and owed everything to a Forest error: Nikola Milenković turned the ball into his own net to make it 1-0. That remained the score until the interval, with Keith Andrews's side holding their advantage as the match settled into a scrappy pattern.
Forest finished with 58% of the possession and 15 shots to Brentford's 7, yet only one of those efforts hit the target, the same number as the hosts managed. Brentford made the most of their limited openings when Jaidon Anthony set up Igor Thiago in the 76th minute to make it 2-0.
The win lifted Brentford to sixth on 14 points, while Forest, who had also lost to Arsenal and Coventry in their previous five games, slipped to 19th on six. Forest host Manchester City in the Premier League on Saturday 7 November, and Brentford travel to Brighton the following day.
Sepp van den Berg earned the highest rating among Brentford's performers at 7.56, with Igor Thiago close behind on 7.54 after scoring the second goal.
Forest took 15 shots to Brentford's 7, but only one of them was on target.
Brentford beat Nottingham Forest 2–0 (half-time 1–0).
Brentford met Nottingham Forest in the Premier League (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC at Brentford Community Stadium. Referee: Darren England. Attendance: 17,108.
Team pages: Brentford · Nottingham Forest · Premier League
Key moments
- 30' Goal (own goal): Nikola Milenković — 1–0 · Watch Nikola Milenković's goal video (30')
- 76' Goal: Igor Thiago (assist: Jaidon Anthony) — 2–0 · Watch Igor Thiago's goal video (76')
Starting line-ups
Brentford (4-3-3)
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
- 26 Matz Sels
- 5 Murillo
- 31 Nikola Milenković
- 23 Jair
- 3 Neco Williams
- 21 Xaver Schlager
- 24 James McAtee
- 34 Ola Aina
- 14 Dan Ndoye
- 10 Morgan Gibbs-White
- 19 Liam Delap
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Brentford 49%, the draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 25%. It finished Brentford 2–0 Nottingham Forest.
Brentford's ball control edges a slight lean — We give Brentford 49%, mainly because they usually see more of the ball and our strength rating has them a shade stronger, though Nottingham Forest's recent finishing has run below their chances and streaks like that have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual rate for a strength gap this size, with small nudges either way.
Why Brentford at 49%?
Brentford sit 58 points higher on our strength rating — 1790 to 1733. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,106 such games. Brentford hold 6 more possession points (52 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.3% of 5,609 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 49%?
Nottingham Forest sit -0.97 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.1% of 1,669 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Brentford scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.6% of 1,663 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,247. The bounce-back factor adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Nottingham Forest have shed 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,402 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Brentford on 2 days' rest, Nottingham Forest on 7. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 45,007 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Brentford vs Nottingham Forest final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Nikola Milenković's own goal video (30').
- Watch Igor Thiago's goal against Nottingham Forest (76').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Brentford 2–0 Nottingham Forest. Explore more on the Brentford and Nottingham Forest team pages or the Premier League page.