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play_arrow4 clips- 14′Celta Vigo, goal:1–0assist
- 27′Osasuna, yellow card:Persistent fouling
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Osasuna, substitution:off
- 48′Celta Vigo, VAR review:Card upgrade
- 51′Celta Vigo, red card:Foul
- 52′Celta Vigo, substitution:off
- 54′Osasuna, goal:1–1assist
- 58′Osasuna, substitution:off
- 58′Osasuna, substitution:off
- 64′Osasuna, penalty goal:1–2Penalty
- 65′Celta Vigo, substitution:off
- 65′Celta Vigo, substitution:off
- 65′Celta Vigo, substitution:off
- 74′Osasuna, substitution:off
- 79′Celta Vigo, substitution:off
- 82′Osasuna, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 2
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Celta Vigo
Osasuna
Match report
Osasuna fight back from a man down to sink Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Osasuna in the opening round of La Liga, having led at half-time before conceding twice after being reduced to ten men. Iago Aspas put the hosts ahead in the 14th minute, finishing off an assist from Miguel Román to send Celta into the break with a 1-0 lead.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The contest turned after the interval when Marcos Alonso was sent off in the 51st minute, and Osasuna capitalised swiftly. Kike Barja levelled three minutes later, converting a chance created by Raúl García, before Ante Budimir struck from the penalty spot in the 63rd minute to put the visitors ahead for good at 1-2.
Despite finishing with less of the ball, Osasuna were far the more incisive side after going down to ten opponents, and Celta could not find a way back once Budimir's penalty had gone in. The result left Celta winless and Osasuna moving into the top half of the early table.
Sergio Carreira was rated the top performer on the pitch with an 8.0 mark despite Celta's defeat, while Aspas backed up his goal with a 7.6 rating.
Osasuna dominated the underlying numbers, racking up 2.68 expected goals to Celta's 0.13 despite playing much of the second half a man up.
Osasuna won 2–1 away against Celta Vigo (half-time 1–0).
Celta Vigo met Osasuna in the La Liga (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Thursday, 27 August 2026, 18:30 UTC at Municipal de Balaídos. Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa.
Team pages: Celta Vigo · Osasuna · La Liga
Key moments
- 14' Goal: Iago Aspas (assist: Miguel Román) — 1–0 · Watch Iago Aspas's goal video (14')
- 51' Red card: Marcos Alonso
- 54' Goal: Kike Barja (assist: Raúl García) — 1–1 · Watch Kike Barja's goal video (54')
- 64' Goal (penalty): Ante Budimir — 1–2 · Watch Ante Budimir's goal video (64')
Starting line-ups
Celta Vigo (3-4-3)
- 13 Ionuț Radu
- 3 Marcos Alonso
- 29 Yoel Lago
- 20 Javi Rodríguez
- 22 Javi Galán
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 8 Miguel Román
- 17 Javi Rueda
- 19 Williot Swedberg
- 11 Pablo Durán
- 10 Iago Aspas (c)
Osasuna (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Celta Vigo 49%, the draw 30%, Osasuna 21%. It finished Celta Vigo 1–2 Osasuna.
Celta Vigo's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Celta Vigo are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and La Liga home advantage on top gives Celta Vigo the lean. The draw at 30% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Celta Vigo at 49%?
Celta Vigo sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1861 to 1781. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.6% of 10,382 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.2%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,098 games vs 44.9% across all 99,396 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 49%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Celta Vigo's column. Across 10,739 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Osasuna win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,666. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Osasuna have shed 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,664 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Celta Vigo's last five: W-L-D-W-D — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2194 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4007 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Celta Vigo vs Osasuna final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this La Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Iago Aspas's goal against Osasuna (14').
- Watch Kike Barja's goal against Celta Vigo (54').
- Watch Ante Budimir's goal against Celta Vigo (64').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Celta Vigo 1–2 Osasuna. Explore more on the Celta Vigo and Osasuna team pages or the La Liga page.