HighlightsSerie AYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow6 clips- 8′Bologna, goal:0–1assist
- 14′AC Milan, goal:1–1
- 27′AC Milan, goal:2–1assist
- Half-time2 – 1
- 46′AC Milan, substitution:off
- 58′AC Milan, substitution:off
- 58′AC Milan, substitution:off
- 58′Bologna, substitution:off
- 59′Bologna, substitution:off
- 59′Bologna, substitution:off
- 60′Bologna, own goal:2–2Own goal
- 62′Bologna, goal:2–3assist
- 63′AC Milan, substitution:off
- 70′Bologna, substitution:off
- 76′Bologna, yellow card:
- 79′Bologna, substitution:off
- 84′Bologna, yellow card:
- 86′Bologna, goal:2–4assist
- 87′AC Milan, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 4
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AC Milan
Bologna
Match report
Mbangula hits hat-trick as Bologna beat AC Milan 4-2 at San Siro
Bologna came from behind to win 4-2 at AC Milan in Serie A on Matchday 9, with Samuel Mbangula scoring three times at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Mbangula opened the scoring in the eighth minute, converting a chance created by Nadir Zortea, but the home side hit back before the half-hour.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Alphadjo Cissè levelled in the 14th minute and put Milan 2-1 ahead in the 27th, the second goal set up by Fikayo Tomori. That was how the first half finished, with Milan in front and in control of the ball, though the contest stayed finely balanced.
The game turned after the break. Davide Bartesaghi turned the ball into his own net in the 60th minute to make it 2-2, and two minutes later Mbangula put Bologna 3-2 up from Juan Miranda's assist. He completed his hat-trick in the 86th minute, Jens Odgaard providing the pass. Milan, who had been unbeaten in their first eight league games, lost in the league for the first time this season.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Bologna a 16% chance of winning. Both sides are next in action on Saturday 31 October: Milan host Inter in Serie A, while Bologna entertain Monza.
Samuel Mbangula scored three of Bologna's four goals, in the 8th, 62nd and 86th minutes, and took a match-high rating of 9.2.
Milan had 66% of the possession but still lost, with Bologna landing five of their nine shots on target.
Bologna won 4–2 away against AC Milan (half-time 2–1).
AC Milan met Bologna in the Serie A (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi. Attendance: 72,825.
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Samuel Mbangula (assist: Nadir Zortea) — 0–1 · Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal video (8')
- 14' Goal: Alphadjo Cissè — 1–1 · Watch Alphadjo Cissè's goal video (14')
- 27' Goal: Alphadjo Cissè (assist: Fikayo Tomori) — 2–1 · Watch Alphadjo Cissè's goal video (27')
- 60' Goal (own goal): Davide Bartesaghi — 2–2 · Watch Davide Bartesaghi's goal video (60')
- 62' Goal: Samuel Mbangula (assist: Juan Miranda) — 2–3 · Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal video (62')
- 86' Goal: Samuel Mbangula (assist: Jens Odgaard) — 2–4 · Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal video (86')
Starting line-ups
AC Milan (4-2-3-1)
Bologna (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave AC Milan 57%, the draw 27%, Bologna 16%. It finished AC Milan 2–4 Bologna.
Milan's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give AC Milan 57% mainly because our strength rating puts them 108 points higher, 1792 to 1684, though Serie A home sides tend to under-perform, which helps Bologna a little. The draw sits at 27%, up from the usual 25% for a gap this size, nudged higher by the league's normal draw rate and Milan's control of the ball.
Why AC Milan at 57%?
AC Milan sit 108 points higher on our strength rating — 1792 to 1684. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,351 such games. AC Milan hold 8 more possession points (56 to 48 in recent games) across a 108-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 9,316 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–28–18.
Why only 57%?
Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,164 games vs 44.6% across all 108,079 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bologna win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,336. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bologna are 3 games into a new manager (Raffaele Palladino), appointed 17 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Adrien Rabiot, Samuel Chukwueze, and Mario Gila, important players, and Alexis Saelemaekers and Diego Moreira, rotation players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the AC Milan vs Bologna final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal against AC Milan (8').
- Watch Alphadjo Cissè's goal against Bologna (14').
- Watch Alphadjo Cissè's goal against Bologna (27').
- Watch Davide Bartesaghi's own goal video (60').
- Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal against AC Milan (62').
- Watch Samuel Mbangula's goal against AC Milan (86').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from AC Milan 2–4 Bologna. Explore more on the AC Milan and Bologna team pages or the Serie A page.