Match report
Toulouse hold off Le Havre fightback to win 3-2
Toulouse won 3-2 against Le Havre in a Ligue 1 round five match at Stadium Municipal, breaking the deadlock after a goalless first half with a burst of second-half goals before surviving a late scare.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Casper Tengstedt opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 49th minute and doubled his tally two minutes later, finishing an assist from Thomas Jørgensen to put the home side 2-0 ahead. Le Havre responded through Joshua Maja in the 71st minute, set up by Sota Nakamura, but Jørgensen restored the two-goal cushion in the 79th minute with an assist from Cristian Cásseres.
Mbwana Samatta pulled another back for Le Havre in the 88th minute to make it 3-2, but Toulouse held on for a first win of the sequence shown in their recent form. The result lifted Jens Askou's side to 12th in the table on five points, while D. Digard's Le Havre remain 17th with two points from five games.
Jørgensen scored once and set up Tengstedt's second goal, finishing with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.41.
Le Havre had more shots on target than Toulouse, seven to five, despite finishing on the losing side.
Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2 (half-time 0–0).
Toulouse met Le Havre in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadium Municipal. Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj.
Key moments
- 49' Goal (penalty): Casper Tengstedt — 1–0
- 51' Goal: Casper Tengstedt (assist: Thomas Jørgensen) — 2–0
- 71' Goal: Joshua Maja (assist: Sota Nakamura) — 2–1
- 79' Goal: Thomas Jørgensen (assist: Cristian Cásseres) — 3–1
- 88' Goal: Mbwana Samatta — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Toulouse (4-4-2)
Le Havre (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Toulouse 54%, the draw 27%, Le Havre 19%. It finished Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre.
Toulouse's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Toulouse are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Toulouse's 54%. The draw at 27% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Toulouse at 54%?
Toulouse sit 157 points higher on our strength rating — 1731 to 1574. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,822 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 57–28–15.
Why only 54%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Toulouse's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Le Havre win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,851. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Le Havre come into this after a busy window — 12 arrivals, 15 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Toulouse are 4 games into a new manager (Jens Askou), appointed 28 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Toulouse vs Le Havre final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre. Explore more on the Toulouse and Le Havre team pages or the Ligue 1 page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2 (half-time 0–0).
›Who scored in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Casper Tengstedt (49') (penalty) for Toulouse; Casper Tengstedt (51') for Toulouse; Joshua Maja (71') for Le Havre; Thomas Jørgensen (79') for Toulouse; Mbwana Samatta (88') for Le Havre.
›Where can I watch Toulouse vs Le Havre highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Toulouse and Le Havre have met 10 times — 5 wins for Toulouse, 3 wins for Le Havre and 2 draws.