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- 25′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 25′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 36′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- 39′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 40′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- Half-time
- 58′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 67′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 73′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 73′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 83′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 84′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 84′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 89′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 90′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 90+3′Toulouse, yellow card:
- Full-time
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Toulouse
Estac Troyes
Match report
Toulouse and Estac Troyes share a goalless draw at Stadium Municipal
Toulouse and Estac Troyes finished 0-0 in Ligue 1 on matchday 8 at Stadium Municipal, with neither side able to break the deadlock in a match that produced no goals and no goalmouth moments recorded in the events. The point left Toulouse 11th on 10 points, while Troyes stayed 17th on 5.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Toulouse controlled the ball, finishing with 63 per cent possession to 37 for Troyes, and they won four corners to two. Yet Troyes had the greater number of shots, eight to seven, and the expected-goals figures were modest at both ends, 0.7 for Toulouse and 0.38 for the visitors.
Where the home side did hold an edge was in accuracy: three of their efforts hit the target, while Troyes failed to register a single shot on target. It was also a combative afternoon, with Toulouse shown six yellow cards to two for the visitors and conceding 19 fouls to 14. For Troyes, it ended a run of five defeats in a row, though they remain without a win in six games.
Toulouse travel to Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November, while Troyes host Le Mans in the same competition on Saturday 31 October.
Adrien Monfray earned the highest rating of any player, 7.45, for Troyes, edging Toulouse's Rasmus Nicolaisen on 7.42 as defences dominated.
Toulouse had three shots on target to none for Troyes, the one clear difference between two otherwise evenly matched attacks.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Toulouse met Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stadium Municipal. Referee: Geoffrey Kubler. Attendance: 23,512.
Team pages: Toulouse · Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
Starting line-ups
Toulouse (4-4-2)
Estac Troyes (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Toulouse 57%, the draw 24%, Estac Troyes 19%. It finished Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes.
Toulouse's higher strength rating gives them a clear lead — We give Toulouse 57% mainly because they sit 126 points higher on our strength rating, 1685 to 1559, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 24%, just under the usual 25% for a gap this size, as both teams' recent games average 2.9 goals.
Why Toulouse at 57%?
Toulouse sit 126 points higher on our strength rating — 1685 to 1559. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,340 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 57–24–19.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Estac Troyes at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,185.
What did we measure but not count?
Toulouse have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Estac Troyes in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Estac Troyes are newly promoted — game 8 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Toulouse vs Estac Troyes final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes. Explore more on the Toulouse and Estac Troyes team pages or the Ligue 1 page.