Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 7′AZ Alkmaar, goal:0–1assist
- 21′Heerenveen, goal:1–1assist
- 28′Heerenveen, yellow card:Argument
- 30′Heerenveen, goal:2–1assist
- Half-time2 – 1
- 46′AZ Alkmaar, substitution:off
- 46′AZ Alkmaar, substitution:off
- 54′AZ Alkmaar, yellow card:Argument
- 64′AZ Alkmaar, substitution:off
- 68′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 68′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 68′AZ Alkmaar, substitution:off
- 69′AZ Alkmaar, goal:2–2assist
- 74′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 82′AZ Alkmaar, substitution:off
- 83′AZ Alkmaar, goal:2–3assist
- 88′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 90+1′AZ Alkmaar, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time2 – 3
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
Match report
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar — the facts
AZ Alkmaar won 3–2 away against Heerenveen (half-time 2–1).
Heerenveen met AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Sunday, 6 September 2026, 12:30 UTC at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Referee: Jeroen Manschot.
Team pages: Heerenveen · AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Ro-Zangelo Daal (assist: Wouter Goes) — 0–1
- 21' Goal: Nolhan Courtens (assist: Dylan Vente) — 1–1
- 30' Goal: Ringo Meerveld (assist: Dirk Proper) — 2–1
- 69' Goal: Mexx Meerdink (assist: Valdemar Byskov) — 2–2
- 83' Goal: Ayoub Oufkir (assist: Mexx Meerdink) — 2–3
Starting line-ups
Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Heerenveen 22%, the draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 54%. It finished Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar.
AZ Alkmaar's rating gap outweighs Heerenveen's home ground — AZ Alkmaar are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives AZ Alkmaar the lean. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why AZ Alkmaar at 54%?
AZ Alkmaar sit 234 points higher on our strength rating — 1638 to 1871. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 51.9% of 6,069 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Heerenveen's column. Across 10,972 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 18–25–57.
Why only 54%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 54% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Heerenveen at 22%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,128. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
AZ Alkmaar scored +0.41 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,838 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. AZ Alkmaar have gained 113 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,314 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar team pages or the Eredivisie page.