Match report
Charlton fight back to sink Derby with late Campbell winner
Charlton came from behind to beat Derby 2-1 in the opening round of the Championship season at The Valley, overturning a first-half deficit with two second-half goals to claim all three points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Derby took the lead in the 23rd minute when Samuel Szmodics converted an assist from Carlton Morris, and the visitors held that advantage through to half-time with the score at 0-1. Charlton responded after the break, drawing level in the 61st minute through Lloyd Jones, set up by Karlan Ahearne-Grant. Tyreece Campbell then struck in the 80th minute to put the home side ahead for good and settle the contest at 2-1.
Charlton had less of the ball, with 45% possession to Derby's 55%, yet produced 13 shots to their opponents' 15 and matched them with four shots on target apiece, while the expected goals figures of 1.07 for Derby and 1.01 for Charlton reflected a tightly contested match. Derby were also the more heavily booked side, picking up three yellow cards and committing 15 fouls compared to Charlton's seven and none respectively.
Lloyd Jones scored Charlton's equaliser and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 7.9, while Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell followed close behind after netting the decisive late goal.
Derby committed more than double the fouls of Charlton, 15 to seven, as the visitors picked up three yellow cards to the hosts' none.
Charlton beat Derby 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Charlton met Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at The Valley. Referee: Benjamin Speedie.
Team pages: Charlton · Derby · Championship
Key moments
- 23' Goal: Samuel Szmodics (assist: Carlton Morris) — 0–1
- 61' Goal: Lloyd Jones (assist: Karlan Ahearne-Grant) — 1–1
- 80' Goal: Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Charlton (4-2-3-1)
Derby (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Charlton 32%, the draw 35%, Derby 33%. It finished Charlton 2–1 Derby.
Derby's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Derby are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus the early-season home fade on top give Derby the lean. The draw at 35% is the likeliest single result, lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Derby at 33%?
Derby sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1396 to 1476. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,505 such games. Derby hold 8 more possession points (50 to 42 in recent games) across a 80-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,587 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Charlton's column. Across 10,563 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 38–31–31.
Why only 33%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 33% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 35% and Charlton at 32%.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,561. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Derby are missing 2 regular starters — Matthew Clarke, Derry Murkin — about 20% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing. Last 6 between them: Charlton 1 win, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins. Most recently Charlton 1–2 Derby, 7 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.0% of 5567 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Charlton vs Derby final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Charlton 2–1 Derby. Explore more on the Charlton and Derby team pages or the Championship page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Charlton vs Derby?
Charlton beat Derby 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
›Who scored in Charlton vs Derby?
Samuel Szmodics (23') for Derby; Lloyd Jones (61') for Charlton; Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell (80') for Charlton.
›Where can I watch Charlton vs Derby highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Charlton 2–1 Derby are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Derby?
Charlton and Derby have met 10 times — 2 wins for Charlton, 6 wins for Derby and 2 draws.