Bolton vs 10.10.26 14:001 – 2Full Time
Stoke City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 20′Stoke City, red card:Professional foul last man
- 34′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 45′Stoke City, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 46′Bolton, substitution:off
- 56′Bolton, substitution:off
- 56′Bolton, substitution:off
- 62′Stoke City, goal:0–2assist
- 63′Bolton, substitution:off
- 69′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 69′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 69′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 72′Bolton, yellow card:Foul
- 82′Bolton, substitution:off
- 90′Bolton, goal:1–2assist
- Full-time1 – 2
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Bolton
Stoke City
Match report
Ten-man Stoke City hold off Bolton fightback to win 2-1
Stoke City won 2-1 at Bolton in a Championship Matchday 9 fixture at the Toughsheet Community Stadium, holding on with ten men after Maksym Talovierov was sent off in the 20th minute. The result lifted the visitors, who arrived in fourth place with 16 points, while Bolton, 17th on 10 points, remained under pressure.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Stoke took the lead in first-half stoppage time. Ethan Galbraith supplied the pass and Lamine Cissé finished in the 45+4 minute to make it 1-0 at the break. The advantage was doubled in the 62nd minute, when Benjamin Wilmot converted a delivery from Jack McGlynn to make it 2-0.
Bolton, who had dominated the ball throughout, finally broke through in the 90+2 minute. Gaizka Larrazabal created the opening and Thelonius Bair scored to make it 2-1. The home side could not find an equaliser in the time that remained, and Stoke saw out the closing stages to take all three points.
Benjamin Wilmot scored Stoke's second goal, converting McGlynn's assist in the 62nd minute, and earned the top rating of the match at 7.83.
Bolton managed 30 shots to Stoke's 9, yet still lost, with Stoke's tally of five shots on target against four for the home side underlining their efficiency.
Stoke City won 2–1 away against Bolton (half-time 0–1).
Bolton met Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Toughsheet Community Stadium. Referee: Thomas Kirk.
Team pages: Bolton · Stoke City · Championship
Key moments
- 20' Red card: Maksym Talovierov
- 45' Goal: Lamine Cissé (assist: Ethan Galbraith) — 0–1 · Watch Lamine Cissé's goal video (45')
- 62' Goal: Ben Wilmot (assist: Jack McGlynn) — 0–2
- 90' Goal: Theo Bair (assist: Gaizka Larrazabal) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
- 31 Gavin Bazunu
- 25 Max Conway
- 6 Ben Davies
- 18 Eoin Toal (c)
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
- 21 Ethan Erhahon
- 8 Josh Sheehan
- 11 Thierry Gale
- 20 Ruben Rodrigues
- 7 Kyliane Dong
- 10 Samuel Dalby
Stoke City (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bolton 40%, the draw 27%, Stoke City 33%. It finished Bolton 1–2 Stoke City.
Home ground outweighs Stoke City's rating edge — Stoke City are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground plus Stoke City's hot finishing due to cool give Bolton the lean. The draw at 27% is nudged down by the same factors that shape the win chances.
Why Bolton at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. Stoke City sit 74 points higher on our strength rating — 1298 to 1372. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 10,361 such games. Stoke City scored +0.43 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,447 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 40%?
Because Stoke City are the stronger side on our strength rating. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,451 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Bolton scored +0.43 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,465 games, vs 27.7% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,118. The cool-off factor takes 2.4 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Stoke City have gained 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,169 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Bolton are newly promoted — game 9 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bolton vs Stoke City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bolton 1–2 Stoke City. Explore more on the Bolton and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.